Exam SRM – Statistics for Risk Modeling

5 个单元 · 29 个章节

免费 Exam SRM – Statistics for Risk Modeling 学习笔记,适合 SOA (Society of Actuaries) 学生。每个章节都覆盖一个重点主题,并附例题与可延伸到 thinka app 的练习提示。

Basics of Statistical Learning

  • Supervised vs. unsupervised and regression vs. classification

  • Assessing model accuracy

  • The bias-variance tradeoff

  • Training set vs. test set validation

  • k-fold cross-validation

  • Leave-one-out cross-validation

Linear Models

  • Ordinary least squares vs. generalized linear model assumptions

  • The exponential family and link functions

  • Interpreting parameters in a business context

  • Diagnostic tests of model fit and assumption checking

  • Variable transformations and interactions

  • Model selection criteria: t and F tests, AIC, BIC, and likelihood ratio test

  • Predicted values, confidence intervals, and prediction intervals

  • Regularized regression and K-nearest neighbors

Time Series Models

  • Stochastic time series: random walks, stationarity, and autocorrelation

  • Exponential smoothing models

  • Autoregressive models

  • Autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic models

  • Predicted values and confidence intervals

Decision Trees

  • Constructing and pruning decision trees

  • Classification trees

  • Regression trees

  • Bagging, boosting, and random forests

  • Comparing decision trees to linear models

Unsupervised Learning Techniques

  • Principal components and how they are calculated

  • Interpreting principal components analysis

  • K-means clustering

  • Hierarchical clustering

  • Deciding the number of clusters

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