Introduction to Suggesting Explanations

Welcome! In the world of Thinking Skills, we often encounter evidence—facts, statistics, or observations. However, evidence doesn't always speak for itself. If we see that a city's crime rate dropped after a new mayor was elected, it’s easy to say, "The mayor fixed the problem!" But is that the only reason?

In this chapter, we learn how to look at a piece of evidence and ask: "What else could explain this?" Being able to suggest alternative explanations is a vital skill for Paper 2 and Paper 4. It helps us avoid jumping to conclusions and makes us more critical, thoughtful learners.

Note: This chapter focuses on creating explanations. For judging whether an explanation is good or bad, see the chapter on "Assess explanations for evidence."

What Does it Mean to "Suggest"?

According to your syllabus, the command word "Suggest" means to apply your understanding to a situation where there might be a range of valid responses. In an exam, this means there isn't just one "correct" answer hidden in the text; you are being asked to propose a plausible reason why the evidence is the way it is.

The Core Concept: Correlation vs. Causation

Most evidence involves two things happening at the same time. We call this correlation. However, just because two things happen together doesn't mean one caused the other. This is causation.

When you are asked to suggest an explanation, you are often looking for the "missing link" or an alternative cause. For example:

Evidence: Statistics show that people who own umbrellas are less likely to get sunburned.
Obvious (but wrong) explanation: Umbrellas physically prevent all sun exposure.
Suggested alternative explanation: People who own umbrellas might be more likely to check the weather forecast and stay indoors during extreme weather (sun or rain).

Common Types of Alternative Explanations

When you are trying to think of an alternative explanation for a piece of evidence, try these three strategies:

1. The "Third Variable" (Common Cause)

Sometimes, \(A\) and \(B\) happen together not because \(A \implies B\), but because a third factor, \(C\), is causing both of them.

Example: In a seaside town, ice cream sales and shark attacks both increase in July.
Suggested Explanation: The hot weather (\(C\)) causes more people to buy ice cream (\(A\)) and more people to swim in the ocean (\(B\)), where sharks are. The ice cream doesn't cause the shark attacks!

2. Reverse Causality

Sometimes we think \(A\) caused \(B\), but it is actually the other way around: \(B\) caused \(A\).

Example: A study finds that people who use walking sticks have more joint pain.
Suggested Explanation: It isn't the walking stick causing the pain; it is the joint pain that causes people to buy and use a walking stick.

3. Coincidence or Chance

Sometimes, evidence is just a fluke. This is especially true if the sample size is very small. (You can cross-reference this with the chapter on "Assess the representativeness of a sample").

Example: A coin was flipped five times and landed on "Heads" every time.
Suggested Explanation: This could simply be a statistical coincidence rather than the coin being "rigged."

Step-by-Step: How to Suggest an Explanation

If you are faced with a question asking you to suggest an explanation for a set of data or a scenario, follow these steps:

  1. Identify the "Fact": What exactly is the evidence? (e.g., "The number of students choosing History has decreased.")
  2. Identify the "Given Reason": Is the document already suggesting a reason? (e.g., "The document says History is too hard.")
  3. Brainstorm "What Else?": Think of other factors that could lead to the same result.
    • Is there a new subject available that is more popular?
    • Did a popular History teacher leave the school?
    • Has the university entry requirement changed to favor Science?
  4. Check for Plausibility: Does your suggestion actually fit the facts? It doesn't have to be certain, but it must be possible.

"Quick Review" Box

A good suggested explanation should:
- Be consistent with the evidence provided.
- Not rely on wild "conspiracy theories" or impossible events.
- Account for the data without necessarily agreeing with the author's conclusion.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Don't worry if this seems tricky at first! Many students make these common errors:

  • Simply repeating the evidence: If the evidence is "Sales are down," don't suggest "People aren't buying things." That's the same thing! Suggest why they aren't buying things (e.g., a competitor opened nearby).
  • Being too vague: Instead of saying "Something changed," say "A change in government policy regarding taxes made the product more expensive."
  • Ignoring the context: If the evidence is about a specific school, don't suggest an explanation that only applies to global economics unless you can link it back.

Key Takeaways

1. Move beyond the obvious: The first explanation you think of is usually the one the author wants you to believe. Look for others!

2. Use the "Third Factor" trick: Ask yourself if something else is influencing both parts of the evidence.

3. Look for "Post Hoc" errors: Just because \(B\) happened after \(A\), it doesn't mean \(A\) caused it. This is a causal fallacy.

4. Be specific: Clear, logical suggestions get the most marks in Paper 2 and Paper 4.