HKDSE · thinka-original Practice Paper

2021 HKDSE Mathematics M1 (Calculus and Statistics) Practice Paper with Answers

Thinka 2021 HKDSE-Style Mock — Mathematics M1 (Calculus and Statistics)

100 marks150 mins2021
An original Thinka practice paper modelled on the structure and difficulty of the 2021 HKDSE Mathematics M1 (Calculus and Statistics) paper. Not affiliated with or reproduced from HKDSE.

Section A

Answer ALL questions in this section. Write your answers in the spaces provided.
8 Question · 50 marks
Question 1 · Short Questions
6 marks
The table below shows the probability distribution of a discrete random variable \(X\), where \(p\) and \(q\) are constants.

\[ \begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline x & -2 & 0 & 1 & 3 & 5 \\ \hline P(X = x) & p & 0.20 & 0.10 & q & 0.15 \\ \hline \end{array} \]

It is given that \(\mathrm{E}(3X - 2) = 2.5\).

(a) Find \(p\) and \(q\).

(b) Let \(A\) be the event that \(X \ge 0\) and \(B\) be the event that \(X \le 3\). Find \(\mathrm{P}(A \mid B)\).
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Worked solution

(a) Since the sum of all probabilities is 1,
\[ p + 0.20 + 0.10 + q + 0.15 = 1 \implies p + q = 0.55 \quad \text{--- (1)} \]

Given \(\mathrm{E}(3X - 2) = 2.5\),
\[ 3\mathrm{E}(X) - 2 = 2.5 \implies \mathrm{E}(X) = 1.5 \]

Using the definition of expectation:
\[ (-2)(p) + 0(0.20) + 1(0.10) + 3(q) + 5(0.15) = 1.5 \]
\[ -2p + 0.10 + 3q + 0.75 = 1.5 \implies -2p + 3q = 0.65 \quad \text{--- (2)} \]

From (1), \(2p + 2q = 1.10\). Adding to (2):
\[ 5q = 1.75 \implies q = 0.35 \]
\[ p = 0.55 - 0.35 = 0.20 \]

(b) The event \(B\) corresponds to \(X \in \{-2, 0, 1, 3\}\).
\[ \mathrm{P}(B) = p + 0.20 + 0.10 + q = 0.20 + 0.20 + 0.10 + 0.35 = 0.85 \]

The event \(A \cap B\) corresponds to \(X \in \{0, 1, 3\}\).
\[ \mathrm{P}(A \cap B) = 0.20 + 0.10 + 0.35 = 0.65 \]

Therefore,
\[ \mathrm{P}(A \mid B) = \frac{\mathrm{P}(A \cap B)}{\mathrm{P}(B)} = \frac{0.65}{0.85} = \frac{13}{17} \approx 0.7647 \]

Marking scheme

(a) 1M for \(p + q = 0.55\); 1M for \(\mathrm{E}(X) = 1.5\) and setting up the linear equation in \(p\) and \(q\); 1A for both \(p = 0.20\) and \(q = 0.35\).
(b) 1M for finding \(\mathrm{P}(B)\) and \(\mathrm{P}(A \cap B)\); 1M for applying conditional probability formula; 1A for \(\frac{13}{17}\) (or r.t. 0.7647).
Question 2 · Short Questions
6 marks
In a factory, 8% of the manufactured components are defective. An automated testing device is used to detect defective components. If a component is defective, the probability that the device classifies it as defective is 0.95. If a component is non-defective, the probability that the device classifies it as non-defective is 0.92.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected component is classified as defective by the device.

(b) Find the probability that the device gives an incorrect classification for a randomly selected component.

(c) Given that a component is classified as defective by the device, find the probability that it is actually defective.
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Worked solution

Let \(D\) be the event that a component is defective, and \(T\) be the event that the device classifies the component as defective.
Given: \(\mathrm{P}(D) = 0.08\), \(\mathrm{P}(D') = 0.92\), \(\mathrm{P}(T \mid D) = 0.95\), \(\mathrm{P}(T' \mid D') = 0.92\), so \(\mathrm{P}(T \mid D') = 1 - 0.92 = 0.08\).

(a) The probability that a component is classified as defective is:
\[ \mathrm{P}(T) = \mathrm{P}(D)\mathrm{P}(T \mid D) + \mathrm{P}(D')\mathrm{P}(T \mid D') \]
\[ \mathrm{P}(T) = (0.08)(0.95) + (0.92)(0.08) = 0.076 + 0.0736 = 0.1496 \]

(b) An incorrect classification occurs if the component is defective and tested non-defective, or non-defective and tested defective:
\[ \mathrm{P}(\text{Incorrect}) = \mathrm{P}(D)\mathrm{P}(T' \mid D) + \mathrm{P}(D')\mathrm{P}(T \mid D') \]
\[ = (0.08)(1 - 0.95) + (0.92)(0.08) = (0.08)(0.05) + 0.0736 = 0.004 + 0.0736 = 0.0776 \]

(c) By Bayes' Theorem:
\[ \mathrm{P}(D \mid T) = \frac{\mathrm{P}(D \cap T)}{\mathrm{P}(T)} = \frac{(0.08)(0.95)}{0.1496} = \frac{0.076}{0.1496} = \frac{95}{187} \approx 0.5080 \]

Marking scheme

(a) 1M for \((0.08)(0.95) + (0.92)(0.08)\); 1A for 0.1496.
(b) 1M for \((0.08)(0.05) + (0.92)(0.08)\); 1A for 0.0776.
(c) 1M for using Bayes' theorem \(\frac{0.076}{0.1496}\); 1A for \(\frac{95}{187}\) (or r.t. 0.5080).
Question 3 · Short Questions
7 marks
In a multiple-choice test consisting of 10 questions, each question has 4 options with only one correct answer. For each question, the probability that David knows the correct answer is 0.7. If he knows the correct answer, he answers it correctly with probability 0.9. If he does not know the correct answer, he randomly guesses an option.

(a) Find the probability that David answers a randomly chosen question correctly.

(b) Find the probability that David answers at least 8 questions correctly in the test.

(c) Given that David answers at least 8 questions correctly, find the probability that he knows the correct answer to all 10 questions.
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Worked solution

(a) Let \(K\) be the event that David knows the answer, and \(C\) be the event that he answers correctly.
\[ \mathrm{P}(C) = \mathrm{P}(K)\mathrm{P}(C \mid K) + \mathrm{P}(K')\mathrm{P}(C \mid K') \]
\[ = (0.7)(0.9) + (1 - 0.7)(0.25) = 0.63 + 0.075 = 0.705 \]

(b) Let \(Y\) be the number of questions David answers correctly. Then \(Y \sim \mathrm{B}(10, 0.705)\).
\[ \mathrm{P}(Y \ge 8) = \mathrm{P}(Y = 8) + \mathrm{P}(Y = 9) + \mathrm{P}(Y = 10) \]
\[ = C_8^{10} (0.705)^8 (0.295)^2 + C_9^{10} (0.705)^9 (0.295)^1 + C_{10}^{10} (0.705)^{10} \]
\[ = 45 (0.0598818)(0.087025) + 10 (0.0422167)(0.295) + 1 (0.0297628) \]
\[ \approx 0.234493 + 0.124539 + 0.029763 = 0.388795 \approx 0.3888 \text{ (or } 0.3887 \text{)} \]
More precisely:
\(C_8^{10}(0.705)^8(0.295)^2 + C_9^{10}(0.705)^9(0.295) + (0.705)^{10} \approx 0.2344930 + 0.1245392 + 0.0297628 = 0.388795\).

(c) The probability that he knows the correct answer to all 10 questions and answers at least 8 correctly:
Probability he knows all 10 questions is \(0.7^{10}\).
Given he knows all 10 questions, the number of correct answers \(Z \sim \mathrm{B}(10, 0.9)\).
\[ \mathrm{P}(\text{Knows all 10 and answers } \ge 8 \text{ correctly}) = (0.7)^{10} \left[ C_8^{10} (0.9)^8 (0.1)^2 + C_9^{10} (0.9)^9 (0.1)^1 + (0.9)^{10} \right] \]
\[ = (0.7)^{10} [45(0.43046721)(0.01) + 10(0.387420489)(0.1) + 0.3486784401] \]
\[ = (0.7)^{10} [0.19371024 + 0.38742049 + 0.34867844] = (0.0282475249)(0.92980917) \approx 0.0262648 \]

Hence, the required conditional probability is:
\[ \frac{0.0262648}{0.388795} \approx 0.0676 \]

Marking scheme

(a) 1M for \((0.7)(0.9) + (0.3)(0.25)\); 1A for 0.705.
(b) 1M for setting up binomial probability with \(n=10, p=0.705\); 1M for sum of terms for 8, 9, 10; 1A for r.t. 0.3888.
(c) 1M for evaluating \(0.7^{10} \times \mathrm{P}(Z \ge 8)\); 1M for conditional probability setup; 1A for r.t. 0.0676 (or follow through from (b)).
Question 4 · Short Questions
6 marks
A survey is conducted to estimate the proportion \(p\) of households in a city that own a pet. In a random sample of 80 households from the city, 28 of them own a pet.

(a) (i) Find the sample proportion of households that own a pet.

(ii) Find an approximate 95% confidence interval for \(p\).

(b) The researchers plan to conduct a follow-up survey to estimate \(p\) with an approximate 99% confidence interval such that the width of the confidence interval is at most 0.06. Using the result of (a)(i), estimate the least number of households that should be surveyed.
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Worked solution

(a) (i) The sample proportion is:
\[ \hat{p} = \frac{28}{80} = 0.35 \]

(ii) For a 95% confidence interval, \(z_{0.025} = 1.96\).
\[ \hat{p} \pm 1.96 \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}} = 0.35 \pm 1.96 \sqrt{\frac{0.35 \times 0.65}{80}} \]
\[ = 0.35 \pm 1.96 \sqrt{0.00284375} = 0.35 \pm 1.96(0.0533268) = 0.35 \pm 0.10452 \]
\[ = (0.24548, 0.45452) \approx (0.2455, 0.4545) \]

(b) For an approximate 99% confidence interval, \(z_{0.005} = 2.575\).
Let \(N\) be the number of households to survey. The width of the confidence interval is:
\[ 2 \times 2.575 \sqrt{\frac{0.35(1 - 0.35)}{N}} \le 0.06 \]
\[ 5.15 \sqrt{\frac{0.2275}{N}} \le 0.06 \]
\[ \sqrt{N} \ge \frac{5.15 \times \sqrt{0.2275}}{0.06} \approx \frac{5.15 \times 0.4769696}{0.06} \approx 40.93989 \]
\[ N \ge (40.93989)^2 \approx 1676.07 \quad (\text{or with } 2.5758: N \ge 1677) \]
Using \(z = 2.575\):
\[ N \ge \frac{4 \times (2.575)^2 \times 0.2275}{(0.06)^2} = \frac{4 \times 6.630625 \times 0.2275}{0.0036} = \frac{6.03386875}{0.0036} \approx 1676.07 \]
Thus, the least number of households is 1677 (or 1675 if using \(z=2.575\) and rounding appropriately; using \(N \ge 1676.07\), least integer is 1677).

Marking scheme

(a)(i) 1A for 0.35.
(a)(ii) 1M for \(0.35 \pm 1.96 \sqrt{\frac{0.35(0.65)}{80}}\); 1A for \((0.2455, 0.4545)\).
(b) 1M for \(2(2.575)\sqrt{\frac{0.35(0.65)}{N}} \le 0.06\); 1M for solving inequality for \(N\); 1A for 1677 (accept 1676 to 1678 depending on z-value used).
Question 5 · Short Questions
6 marks
Let \(f(x) = x(4 - x^2)^{\frac{3}{2}}\) for \(0 \le x \le 2\).

(a) Using the substitution \(u = 4 - x^2\), find \(\int x(4 - x^2)^{\frac{3}{2}} \, \mathrm{d}x\).

(b) Find the area of the region bounded by the curve \(y = f(x)\), the \(x\)-axis, and the straight lines \(x = 0\) and \(x = 2\).
Show answer & marking scheme

Worked solution

(a) Let \(u = 4 - x^2\), then \(\frac{\mathrm{d}u}{\mathrm{d}x} = -2x\), so \(x \, \mathrm{d}x = -\frac{1}{2} \, \mathrm{d}u\).
\[ \int x(4 - x^2)^{\frac{3}{2}} \, \mathrm{d}x = \int u^{\frac{3}{2}} \left(-\frac{1}{2}\right) \mathrm{d}u \]
\[ = -\frac{1}{2} \left( \frac{u^{\frac{5}{2}}}{\frac{5}{2}} \right) + C = -\frac{1}{5} u^{\frac{5}{2}} + C \]
\[ = -\frac{1}{5}(4 - x^2)^{\frac{5}{2}} + C \]

(b) The required area is:
\[ \text{Area} = \int_{0}^{2} x(4 - x^2)^{\frac{3}{2}} \, \mathrm{d}x \]
When \(x = 0\), \(u = 4\). When \(x = 2\), \(u = 0\).
\[ = \left[ -\frac{1}{5}(4 - x^2)^{\frac{5}{2}} \right]_{0}^{2} \]
\[ = \left( -\frac{1}{5}(0)^{\frac{5}{2}} \right) - \left( -\frac{1}{5}(4)^{\frac{5}{2}} \right) \]
\[ = 0 + \frac{1}{5}(32) = \frac{32}{5} \]

Marking scheme

(a) 1M for substitution \(u = 4 - x^2\) and \(\mathrm{d}u = -2x\,\mathrm{d}x\); 1M for integrating \(u^{3/2}\); 1A for \(-\frac{1}{5}(4 - x^2)^{5/2} + C\).
(b) 1M for setting up \(\int_0^2 f(x)\,\mathrm{d}x\); 1M for substituting limits; 1A for \(\frac{32}{5}\) (or 6.4).
Question 6 · Short Questions
5 marks
(a) Expand \((1 - 2x)^5\) in ascending powers of \(x\) as far as the term in \(x^3\).

(b) Find the constant \(k\) such that the coefficient of \(x^2\) in the expansion of \((2 + kx + 3x^2)(1 - 2x)^5\) is \(-18\).
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Worked solution

(a) By the Binomial Theorem:
\[ (1 - 2x)^5 = 1 + C_1^5(-2x) + C_2^5(-2x)^2 + C_3^5(-2x)^3 + \cdots \]
\[ = 1 + 5(-2x) + 10(4x^2) + 10(-8x^3) + \cdots \]
\[ = 1 - 10x + 40x^2 - 80x^3 + \cdots \]

(b) Consider the expansion:
\[ (2 + kx + 3x^2)(1 - 10x + 40x^2 - 80x^3 + \cdots) \]

The term in \(x^2\) comes from:
\[ 2(40x^2) + kx(-10x) + 3x^2(1) = (80 - 10k + 3)x^2 = (83 - 10k)x^2 \]

Given that the coefficient of \(x^2\) is \(-18\):
\[ 83 - 10k = -18 \]
\[ 10k = 101 \implies k = 10.1 \]

Marking scheme

(a) 1M for binomial expansion formula with binomial coefficients; 1A for \(1 - 10x + 40x^2 - 80x^3\).
(b) 1M for selecting terms giving \(x^2\); 1M for forming equation \(83 - 10k = -18\); 1A for \(k = 10.1\) (or \(\frac{101}{10}\)).
Question 7 · Short Questions
7 marks
Let \(f(x) = \frac{2x - 3}{x^2 + 3}\) for \(0 \le x \le 4\).

(a) Find \(f'(x)\).

(b) Find the greatest value and the least value of \(f(x)\) on the interval \([0, 4]\).
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Worked solution

(a) By the quotient rule:
\[ f'(x) = \frac{2(x^2 + 3) - (2x - 3)(2x)}{(x^2 + 3)^2} \]
\[ = \frac{2x^2 + 6 - (4x^2 - 6x)}{(x^2 + 3)^2} = \frac{-2x^2 + 6x + 6}{(x^2 + 3)^2} = \frac{-2(x^2 - 3x - 3)}{(x^2 + 3)^2} \]

(b) Set \(f'(x) = 0\):
\[ -2x^2 + 6x + 6 = 0 \implies x^2 - 3x - 3 = 0 \]
\[ x = \frac{3 \pm \sqrt{(-3)^2 - 4(1)(-3)}}{2} = \frac{3 \pm \sqrt{21}}{2} \]

Since \(0 \le x \le 4\) and \(\sqrt{21} \approx 4.5826\):
\(x_1 = \frac{3 + \sqrt{21}}{2} \approx 3.7913 \in [0, 4]\),
\(x_2 = \frac{3 - \sqrt{21}}{2} \approx -0.7913 \notin [0, 4]\) (rejected).

Evaluate \(f(x)\) at the critical point and endpoints:
- At \(x = 0\): \(f(0) = \frac{2(0) - 3}{0^2 + 3} = -1\).
- At \(x = 4\): \(f(4) = \frac{2(4) - 3}{4^2 + 3} = \frac{5}{19} \approx 0.2632\).
- At \(x = \frac{3 + \sqrt{21}}{2}\):
Since \(x^2 - 3x - 3 = 0 \implies x^2 + 3 = 3x + 6\),
\[ f(x) = \frac{2x - 3}{3x + 6} = \frac{2\left(\frac{3+\sqrt{21}}{2}\right) - 3}{3\left(\frac{3+\sqrt{21}}{2}\right) + 6} = \frac{\sqrt{21}}{\frac{21 + 3\sqrt{21}}{2}} = \frac{2\sqrt{21}}{3(7 + \sqrt{21})} = \frac{2\sqrt{21}(7 - \sqrt{21})}{3(49 - 21)} = \frac{2(7\sqrt{21} - 21)}{3(28)} = \frac{\sqrt{21} - 3}{6} \approx 0.2638 \]

Comparing values:
\(-1 < \frac{5}{19} < \frac{\sqrt{21} - 3}{6}\).

Therefore, the greatest value is \(\frac{\sqrt{21} - 3}{6}\) and the least value is \(-1\).

Marking scheme

(a) 1M for applying quotient rule; 1A for \(f'(x) = \frac{-2x^2 + 6x + 6}{(x^2 + 3)^2}\).
(b) 1M for setting \(f'(x) = 0\) and solving for \(x = \frac{3 + \sqrt{21}}{2}\); 1M for evaluating \(f(x)\) at endpoints \(x = 0, 4\); 1M for evaluating \(f(x)\) at the stationary point; 1A for greatest value \(\frac{\sqrt{21}-3}{6}\) (or r.t. 0.2638); 1A for least value \(-1\).
Question 8 · Short Questions
7 marks
Let \(f(x)\) be a function such that \(f'(x) = \frac{k e^{2x}}{1 + e^{2x}}\), where \(k\) is a constant. The tangent to the curve \(y = f(x)\) at the point \(P(0, 3)\) has slope \(2\).

(a) Find \(k\).

(b) Find \(f(x)\).

(c) Find the equation of the normal to the curve \(y = f(x)\) at the point \(P\).
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Worked solution

(a) Given that the tangent at \(x = 0\) has slope 2, we have \(f'(0) = 2\).
\[ f'(0) = \frac{k e^0}{1 + e^0} = \frac{k}{1 + 1} = \frac{k}{2} \]
\[ \frac{k}{2} = 2 \implies k = 4 \]

(b) With \(k = 4\), \(f'(x) = \frac{4e^{2x}}{1 + e^{2x}}\).
\[ f(x) = \int \frac{4e^{2x}}{1 + e^{2x}} \, \mathrm{d}x \]
Let \(u = 1 + e^{2x}\), then \(\mathrm{d}u = 2e^{2x} \, \mathrm{d}x\), so \(4e^{2x} \, \mathrm{d}x = 2 \, \mathrm{d}u\).
\[ f(x) = \int \frac{2}{u} \, \mathrm{d}u = 2\ln|u| + C = 2\ln(1 + e^{2x}) + C \]

Since the curve passes through \(P(0, 3)\):
\[ f(0) = 2\ln(1 + 1) + C = 3 \implies 2\ln 2 + C = 3 \implies C = 3 - 2\ln 2 \]
Thus,
\[ f(x) = 2\ln(1 + e^{2x}) + 3 - 2\ln 2 \quad \left(\text{or } f(x) = 2\ln\left(\frac{1 + e^{2x}}{2}\right) + 3\right) \]

(c) The slope of the tangent at \(P(0, 3)\) is \(m = 2\).
Thus, the slope of the normal is \(m_{\text{normal}} = -\frac{1}{2}\).
The equation of the normal is:
\[ y - 3 = -\frac{1}{2}(x - 0) \implies 2y - 6 = -x \implies x + 2y - 6 = 0 \]

Marking scheme

(a) 1M for substituting \(x=0\) into \(f'(x) = 2\); 1A for \(k = 4\).
(b) 1M for integration using substitution \(u = 1 + e^{2x}\); 1M for obtaining \(2\ln(1 + e^{2x}) + C\); 1M for using \(f(0) = 3\) to find \(C\); 1A for \(f(x) = 2\ln(1 + e^{2x}) + 3 - 2\ln 2\).
(c) 1A for \(x + 2y - 6 = 0\).

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Section B

Answer ALL questions in this section. Write your answers in the spaces provided.
4 Question · 50 marks
Question 1 · Structured
12.5 marks
The volume of beverage in bottles filled by an automatic production line follows a normal distribution with a mean of \(\mu\text{ mL}\) and a standard deviation of \(\sigma\text{ mL}\). The classification of the filled bottles is defined as follows:

$$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|}\hline \text{Volume of a bottle } (V\text{ mL}) & V < 485 & 485 \le V < 510 & V \ge 510 \\ \hline \text{Classification} & \text{Underfilled} & \text{Standard} & \text{Overfilled} \\ \hline \end{array}$$

It is given that \(6.68\%\) of the bottles are underfilled and \(15.87\%\) of the bottles are overfilled.

(a) Find \(\mu\) and \(\sigma\).

(b) The filled bottles are inspected one by one. Find the probability that the 5th inspected bottle is the 2nd overfilled bottle inspected.

(c) A carton contains 8 randomly selected bottles.
(i) Find the probability that the carton contains exactly 1 overfilled bottle and at least 6 standard bottles.
(ii) Given that the carton contains at least 1 overfilled bottle, find the probability that it contains at least 6 standard bottles.
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Worked solution

(a) Let \(V\) be the volume of beverage in a bottle in mL, where \(V \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2)\).

$$P(V < 485) = 0.0668 \implies P\left(Z < \frac{485 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 0.0668$$
$$\frac{485 - \mu}{\sigma} = -1.50 \implies 485 - \mu = -1.5\sigma \quad \dots (1)$$

$$P(V \ge 510) = 0.1587 \implies P\left(Z \ge \frac{510 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 0.1587$$
$$\frac{510 - \mu}{\sigma} = 1.00 \implies 510 - \mu = 1.0\sigma \quad \dots (2)$$

Subtracting (1) from (2):
$$25 = 2.5\sigma \implies \sigma = 10$$
Substituting \(\sigma = 10\) into (2):
$$510 - \mu = 10 \implies \mu = 500$$

(b) Let \(p_O = 0.1587\) be the probability that a bottle is overfilled.
Probability that the 5th inspected bottle is the 2nd overfilled bottle:
$$= C_1^4 (p_O)^1 (1 - p_O)^3 \times p_O$$
$$= 4 (0.1587)^2 (1 - 0.1587)^3$$
$$= 4 (0.02518569)(0.5954622) \approx 0.059988 \approx 0.0600$$

(c) The probability that a bottle is standard is \(p_S = 1 - 0.0668 - 0.1587 = 0.7745\), and underfilled is \(p_U = 0.0668\).

(i) The event consists of two mutually exclusive cases:
- Case 1: 1 overfilled, 6 standard, 1 underfilled:
$$P(\text{Case 1}) = \frac{8!}{1!6!1!} (0.1587)^1 (0.7745)^6 (0.0668)^1 = 56(0.1587)(0.215579)(0.0668) \approx 0.12803$$
- Case 2: 1 overfilled, 7 standard, 0 underfilled:
$$P(\text{Case 2}) = \frac{8!}{1!7!0!} (0.1587)^1 (0.7745)^7 = 8(0.1587)(0.166966) \approx 0.21198$$
$$\text{Required probability} = 0.12803 + 0.21198 \approx 0.3400$$

(ii) Let \(A\) be the event of at least 6 standard bottles and \(B\) be the event of at least 1 overfilled bottle.
$$P(B) = 1 - (1 - p_O)^8 = 1 - (0.8413)^8 \approx 1 - 0.24838 = 0.75162$$
Event \(A \cap B\) includes:
- Exactly 1 overfilled and \(\ge 6\) standard: probability \(\approx 0.34001\)
- Exactly 2 overfilled and 6 standard (0 underfilled):
$$P(2\text{ overfilled}, 6\text{ standard}) = C_2^8 (0.1587)^2 (0.7745)^6 = 28 (0.0251857)(0.215579) \approx 0.15203$$
$$P(A \cap B) = 0.34001 + 0.15203 = 0.49204$$
$$P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{0.49204}{0.75162} \approx 0.6546$$

Marking scheme

(a)
1M for standardising and setting up equations using standard normal table
1M for \(\frac{485 - \mu}{\sigma} = -1.50\) and \(\frac{510 - \mu}{\sigma} = 1.00\)
1A for \(\sigma = 10\)
1A for \(\mu = 500\)

(b)
1M for \(C_1^4 (0.1587)(1-0.1587)^3\)
1M for multiplying by \(0.1587\)
1A for \(0.0600\) (r.t. 0.0600)

(c)(i)
1M for multinomial/binomial expression for 1 overfilled and 6 or 7 standard
1M for adding the two correct probabilities
1A for \(0.3400\) (r.t. 0.3400)

(c)(ii)
1M for finding \(P(\ge 1\text{ overfilled}) = 1 - (0.8413)^8\)
1M for finding \(P(\ge 6\text{ standard} \cap \ge 1\text{ overfilled})\)
0.5A for \(0.6546\) (r.t. 0.6546)
Question 2 · Structured
12.5 marks
The number of urgent support tickets received by an IT helpdesk per hour follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of \(1.6\), while the number of regular support tickets received per hour follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of \(2.4\). Assume the arrivals of urgent and regular support tickets are independent.

(a) Find the probability that the helpdesk receives at least 2 urgent support tickets in a certain hour.

(b) Find the probability that the helpdesk receives a total of exactly 6 support tickets in a 2-hour period.

(c) In a certain hour, exactly 3 support tickets in total are received. Find the probability that at least 2 of them are urgent support tickets.

(d) Given that fewer than 3 support tickets in total are received in a certain hour, find the probability that no urgent support ticket is received in that hour.
Show answer & marking scheme

Worked solution

(a) Let \(X\) be the number of urgent tickets received in an hour, \(X \sim \text{Po}(1.6)\).
$$P(X \ge 2) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1)$$
$$= 1 - e^{-1.6} - 1.6 e^{-1.6} = 1 - 2.6 e^{-1.6} \approx 1 - 0.524907 \approx 0.4751$$

(b) Let \(Y\) be the total number of support tickets received in 2 hours.
Since the sum of two independent Poisson random variables is Poisson, the mean per hour is \(1.6 + 2.4 = 4.0\).
For a 2-hour period, the mean is \(\lambda = 4.0 \times 2 = 8.0\), so \(Y \sim \text{Po}(8.0)\).
$$P(Y = 6) = \frac{e^{-8.0} 8^6}{6!} = \frac{262144 e^{-8}}{720} \approx 0.1221$$

(c) Let \(W\) be the total number of support tickets in 1 hour, \(W \sim \text{Po}(4.0)\). Let \(X\) be urgent and \(R\) be regular tickets.
$$P(X \ge 2 \mid W = 3) = \frac{P(X = 2, R = 1) + P(X = 3, R = 0)}{P(W = 3)}$$
$$P(X = 2, R = 1) = \left(\frac{e^{-1.6} 1.6^2}{2!}\right)\left(\frac{e^{-2.4} 2.4^1}{1!}\right) = \frac{1.28 \times 2.4 \times e^{-4}}{1} = 3.072 e^{-4}$$
$$P(X = 3, R = 0) = \left(\frac{e^{-1.6} 1.6^3}{3!}\right)\left(\frac{e^{-2.4} 2.4^0}{0!}\right) = \frac{4.096}{6} e^{-4} = \frac{2.048}{3} e^{-4} \approx 0.68267 e^{-4}$$
$$P(W = 3) = \frac{e^{-4} 4^3}{3!} = \frac{64}{6} e^{-4} = \frac{32}{3} e^{-4}$$
$$\text{Required probability} = \frac{3.072 + 2.048/3}{32/3} = \frac{9.216 + 2.048}{32} = \frac{11.264}{32} = 0.3520$$

(d) The condition is \(W < 3\), so \(W \in \{0, 1, 2\}\).
$$P(W < 3) = P(W = 0) + P(W = 1) + P(W = 2) = e^{-4}\left(1 + 4 + \frac{4^2}{2}\right) = 13 e^{-4}$$
We want \(P(X = 0 \cap W < 3) = P(X = 0, R = 0) + P(X = 0, R = 1) + P(X = 0, R = 2)\):
$$= e^{-1.6} \cdot e^{-2.4} \left(1 + 2.4 + \frac{2.4^2}{2}\right) = e^{-4} (1 + 2.4 + 2.88) = 6.28 e^{-4}$$
$$\text{Required probability} = \frac{P(X = 0 \cap W < 3)}{P(W < 3)} = \frac{6.28 e^{-4}}{13 e^{-4}} = \frac{6.28}{13} = \frac{157}{325} \approx 0.4831$$

Marking scheme

(a)
1M for \(1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1)\)
1M for substituting Poisson terms with \(\lambda = 1.6\)
1A for \(0.4751\) (r.t. 0.4751)

(b)
1M for Poisson with parameter \(\lambda = 8.0\)
1M for evaluating \(\frac{e^{-8} 8^6}{6!}\)
1A for \(0.1221\) (r.t. 0.1221)

(c)
1M for conditional probability formula \(\frac{P(X \ge 2 \cap W = 3)}{P(W = 3)}\)
1M for calculating joint probabilities \(P(X=2, R=1)\) and \(P(X=3, R=0)\)
0.5M for calculating \(P(W=3)\)
1A for \(0.3520\) (accept \(\frac{44}{125}\))

(d)
1M for finding \(P(W < 3) = 13 e^{-4}\)
1M for finding \(P(X = 0 \cap W < 3) = 6.28 e^{-4}\)
1A for \(0.4831\) (accept \(\frac{157}{325}\), r.t. 0.4831)
Question 3 · Structured
12.5 marks
Let \(f(x) = \frac{x}{\sqrt{x+4}}\) for \(0 \le x \le 4\).

(a) Find \(f'(x)\) and \(f''(x)\).

(b) (i) Using the trapezoidal rule with 4 sub-intervals, estimate \(I = \int_0^4 f(x) \, dx\).
(ii) Determine whether the estimate in (b)(i) is an over-estimate or an under-estimate. Explain your answer.

(c) Using the substitution \(u = \sqrt{x+4}\), find the exact value of \(\int_0^4 f(x) \, dx\).
Show answer & marking scheme

Worked solution

(a) Using the quotient rule:
$$f'(x) = \frac{\sqrt{x+4}(1) - x\left(\frac{1}{2\sqrt{x+4}}\right)}{x+4} = \frac{2(x+4) - x}{2(x+4)^{3/2}} = \frac{x+8}{2(x+4)^{3/2}}$$

Differentiating \(f'(x)\):
$$f''(x) = \frac{2(x+4)^{3/2}(1) - (x+8)\left(3(x+4)^{1/2}\right)}{4(x+4)^3} = \frac{2(x+4) - 3(x+8)}{4(x+4)^{5/2}} = -\frac{x+16}{4(x+4)^{5/2}}$$

(b) (i) For \(n = 4\) sub-intervals on \([0, 4]\), the step size is \(h = \frac{4 - 0}{4} = 1\).
The partition points are \(x_0 = 0, x_1 = 1, x_2 = 2, x_3 = 3, x_4 = 4\).
- \(f(0) = 0\)
- \(f(1) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{5}} \approx 0.4472136\)
- \(f(2) = \frac{2}{\sqrt{6}} \approx 0.8164966\)
- \(f(3) = \frac{3}{\sqrt{7}} \approx 1.1338934\)
- \(f(4) = \frac{4}{\sqrt{8}} = \sqrt{2} \approx 1.4142136\)

$$I \approx \frac{1}{2}\left[f(0) + f(4) + 2(f(1) + f(2) + f(3))\right]$$
$$= \frac{1}{2}\left[0 + 1.4142136 + 2(0.4472136 + 0.8164966 + 1.1338934)\right]$$
$$= \frac{1}{2}\left[1.4142136 + 2(2.3976036)\right] = \frac{1}{2}(6.2094208) \approx 3.1047$$

(ii) For all \(x \in [0, 4]\), \(x + 16 > 0\) and \((x+4)^{5/2} > 0\), so \(f''(x) = -\frac{x+16}{4(x+4)^{5/2}} < 0\).
Since the curve \(y = f(x)\) is concave downward on \([0, 4]\), the trapezoids lie below the curve. Therefore, the estimate is an under-estimate.

(c) Let \(u = \sqrt{x+4}\), then \(u^2 = x + 4 \implies x = u^2 - 4\) and \(dx = 2u \, du\).
When \(x = 0\), \(u = 2\); when \(x = 4\), \(u = \sqrt{8} = 2\sqrt{2}\).
$$\int_0^4 \frac{x}{\sqrt{x+4}} \, dx = \int_2^{2\sqrt{2}} \frac{u^2 - 4}{u} (2u \, du) = 2 \int_2^{2\sqrt{2}} (u^2 - 4) \, du$$
$$= 2 \left[\frac{u^3}{3} - 4u\right]_2^{2\sqrt{2}}$$
$$= 2 \left[\left(\frac{(2\sqrt{2})^3}{3} - 4(2\sqrt{2})\right) - \left(\frac{2^3}{3} - 4(2)\right)\right]$$
$$= 2 \left[\left(\frac{16\sqrt{2}}{3} - 8\sqrt{2}\right) - \left(\frac{8}{3} - 8\right)\right] = 2 \left[-\frac{8\sqrt{2}}{3} + \frac{16}{3}\right] = \frac{32 - 16\sqrt{2}}{3}$$

Marking scheme

(a)
1M for applying quotient/product rule for \(f'(x)\)
1A for \(f'(x) = \frac{x+8}{2(x+4)^{3/2}}\) (or equivalent)
1M for differentiating \(f'(x)\)
1A for \(f''(x) = -\frac{x+16}{4(x+4)^{5/2}}\) (or equivalent)

(b)(i)
1M for correct trapezoidal rule formula with \(h = 1\)
1M for substituting correct values of \(f(x_i)\)
1.5A for \(3.1047\) (r.t. 3.1047)

(b)(ii)
1M for stating \(f''(x) < 0\) on \([0, 4]\)
1A for concluding it is an under-estimate

(c)
1M for using substitution \(u = \sqrt{x+4}\) and converting limits/differential correctly
1M for integrating \(2(u^2 - 4)\) to get \(2\left(\frac{u^3}{3} - 4u\right)\)
1A for exact value \(\frac{32 - 16\sqrt{2}}{3}\)
Question 4 · Structured
12.5 marks
Water flows into an initially empty storage container. The rate of change of the volume of water in the container, \(V\text{ m}^3\), with respect to time \(t\) (in hours, for \(0 \le t \le 4\)) is given by
$$\frac{dV}{dt} = t\sqrt{16 - t^2}$$

(a) Find the time \(t = T\) at which the rate of increase of the volume of water attains its maximum.

(b) Find the exact value of \(V\) when \(t = T\).

(c) The container is in the shape of an inverted right circular cone of height \(4\text{ m}\) and base radius \(2\text{ m}\), held vertically. Let \(h\text{ m}\) be the depth of water in the container at time \(t\).
(i) Find the constant \(Q\) such that \(\frac{dV}{dt} = Q h^2 \frac{dh}{dt}\).
(ii) Hence, find the rate of change of the depth of water when \(t = T\).
Show answer & marking scheme

Worked solution

(a) Let \(g(t) = \frac{dV}{dt} = t(16 - t^2)^{1/2}\).
$$g'(t) = (1)(16 - t^2)^{1/2} + t \left(\frac{1}{2}(16 - t^2)^{-1/2}(-2t)\right) = \sqrt{16 - t^2} - \frac{t^2}{\sqrt{16 - t^2}} = \frac{16 - 2t^2}{\sqrt{16 - t^2}}$$
Setting \(g'(t) = 0\):
$$16 - 2t^2 = 0 \implies t^2 = 8 \implies t = 2\sqrt{2} \quad (\text{since } 0 \le t \le 4)$$
Testing the nature of the stationary point:
- For \(0 \le t < 2\sqrt{2}\), \(g'(t) > 0\)
- For \(2\sqrt{2} < t \le 4\), \(g'(t) < 0\)
Hence, \(g(t)\) attains its maximum at \(t = 2\sqrt{2}\). Thus, \(T = 2\sqrt{2}\).

(b) The volume at \(t = T = 2\sqrt{2}\) is:
$$V = \int_0^{2\sqrt{2}} t\sqrt{16 - t^2} \, dt$$
Let \(u = 16 - t^2\), so \(du = -2t \, dt \implies t \, dt = -\frac{1}{2} du\).
When \(t = 0\), \(u = 16\); when \(t = 2\sqrt{2}\), \(u = 16 - 8 = 8\).
$$V = \int_{16}^8 u^{1/2} \left(-\frac{1}{2} du\right) = \frac{1}{2} \int_8^{16} u^{1/2} \, du = \frac{1}{2} \left[\frac{2}{3} u^{3/2}\right]_8^{16} = \frac{1}{3}\left(16^{3/2} - 8^{3/2}\right)$$
$$= \frac{1}{3}(64 - 8\sqrt{8}) = \frac{1}{3}(64 - 16\sqrt{2}) = \frac{64 - 16\sqrt{2}}{3}$$

(c) (i) Let \(r\) be the radius of the water surface when the depth is \(h\).
By similar triangles, \(\frac{r}{h} = \frac{2}{4} = \frac{1}{2} \implies r = \frac{h}{2}\).
The volume of water is:
$$V = \frac{1}{3}\pi r^2 h = \frac{1}{3}\pi \left(\frac{h}{2}\right)^2 h = \frac{\pi}{12} h^3$$
Differentiating with respect to \(t\):
$$\frac{dV}{dt} = \frac{\pi}{12} (3h^2) \frac{dh}{dt} = \frac{\pi}{4} h^2 \frac{dh}{dt}$$
Thus, \(Q = \frac{\pi}{4}\).

(ii) When \(t = T = 2\sqrt{2}\):
$$\left.\frac{dV}{dt}\right|_{t=2\sqrt{2}} = (2\sqrt{2})\sqrt{16 - 8} = (2\sqrt{2})(2\sqrt{2}) = 8$$
From (b), \(V = \frac{\pi}{12} h^3 = \frac{64 - 16\sqrt{2}}{3}\):
$$h^3 = \frac{4(64 - 16\sqrt{2})}{\pi} = \frac{256 - 64\sqrt{2}}{\pi} \implies h = \left(\frac{256 - 64\sqrt{2}}{\pi}\right)^{1/3} \approx 3.7489$$
Using \(\frac{dV}{dt} = \frac{\pi}{4} h^2 \frac{dh}{dt}\):
$$8 = \frac{\pi}{4} h^2 \frac{dh}{dt} \implies \frac{dh}{dt} = \frac{32}{\pi h^2} = \frac{32}{\pi \left(\frac{256 - 64\sqrt{2}}{\pi}\right)^{2/3}} \approx 0.7237\text{ m/hour}$$

Marking scheme

(a)
1M for differentiating \(\frac{dV}{dt}\)
1M for setting \(\frac{d}{dt}\left(\frac{dV}{dt}\right) = 0\)
1M for testing maximum (first derivative test or second derivative test)
1A for \(T = 2\sqrt{2}\) (accept \(\sqrt{8}\))

(b)
1M for setting up integral \(\int_0^{2\sqrt{2}} t\sqrt{16-t^2} \, dt\)
1M for substitution method (e.g., \(u = 16 - t^2\))
0.5M for changing limits or back substituting
1A for exact value \(\frac{64 - 16\sqrt{2}}{3}\)

(c)(i)
1M for expressing \(r = \frac{h}{2}\) and \(V = \frac{\pi}{12}h^3\)
1M for differentiating \(V\) with respect to \(t\)
0.5A for \(Q = \frac{\pi}{4}\)

(c)(ii)
1M for substituting \(\left.\frac{dV}{dt}\right|_{t=T} = 8\) and finding \(h\)
1.5A for \(\frac{dh}{dt} \approx 0.7237\) (r.t. 0.7237, or exact expression)

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