Table 1: Demographic indicators for Country X (2000 and 2020)
- Year 2000: Birth rate = 18 per 1000; Death rate = 7 per 1000; Population under 15 = 28%; Population aged 65 and over = 7%.
- Year 2020: Birth rate = 10 per 1000; Death rate = 8 per 1000; Population under 15 = 16%; Population aged 65 and over = 18%.
(a) (i) Define the term "elderly dependency ratio". (2 marks)
(a) (ii) Using the data provided, calculate the change in the total dependency ratio for Country X between 2000 and 2020. Show your calculations. (2 marks)
(b) Explain two socio-economic challenges that Country X may face as a result of the demographic trends shown in Table 1. (4 marks)
(c) Outline one pro-natalist policy that Country X could implement to address its declining birth rate. (2 marks)
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Worked solution
(a) (i) Definition: The elderly dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents aged 65 and over to the working-age population (typically defined as those aged 15-64), expressed as a percentage or ratio.
(a) (ii) Calculation:
Total Dependency Ratio (TDR) = \(\frac{\% \text{ under 15} + \% \text{ over 65}}{\% \text{ working age 15-64}} \times 100\)
In 2000: Under 15 = 28%, Over 65 = 7%, Working age = \(100 - (28+7) = 65\)%. TDR = \(\frac{35}{65} \times 100 = 53.85\)%.
In 2020: Under 15 = 16%, Over 65 = 18%, Working age = \(100 - (16+18) = 66\)%. TDR = \(\frac{34}{66} \times 100 = 51.52\)%.
Change: \(51.52\% - 53.85\% = -2.33\)% (or a decrease of 2.33 percentage points).
(b) Challenges (any two explained):
1. Increased healthcare costs and pressure on elderly care facilities due to a higher proportion of elderly population (18% in 2020 vs 7% in 2000).
2. Potential labor shortages in the future due to a shrinking younger demographic cohort (under 15 dropped from 28% to 16%), leading to lower economic productivity or tax revenue.
3. Increased fiscal pressure on public pension systems as a relatively smaller working-age population supports a growing base of retirees.
(c) Pro-natalist Policy: Any valid policy such as cash incentives/child bonuses, heavily subsidized childcare facilities, extended parental leave policies, or tax breaks for larger families, which reduces the financial burden of raising children and encourages parents to have more children.
Marking scheme
(a) (i)
• Award 1 mark for mentioning the ratio of elderly/dependents aged 65+ to the working population.
• Award 1 mark for specifying the correct age range of the working-age population (15-64).
(a) (ii)
• Award 1 mark for showing correct working/formula for both years: Year 2000 TDR (~53.85%) and Year 2020 TDR (~51.52%).
• Award 1 mark for the correct final difference (accept -2.3 to -2.4 percentage point change).
(b)
• Award 1 mark for identifying a socio-economic challenge and 1 mark for explaining how it relates to the changing demographic data, up to a maximum of 4 marks.
• Acceptable challenges include: labor force shortages, increased tax burdens, increased healthcare demand, pension fund unsustainability.
(c)
• Award 1 mark for outlining a specific pro-natalist policy (e.g., parental leave, cash bonuses).
• Award 1 mark for explaining how this policy works to increase the birth rate.