Worked solution
Introduction: Define key terms. A current account deficit occurs when a country's total spending on imports of goods, services, and net income transfers exceeds its receipts from exports. A currency depreciation refers to a decrease in the value of a domestic currency relative to other currencies in a floating exchange rate system. The view argues that depreciation is the most effective corrective policy through expenditure-switching effects. Analysis of the mechanism: A depreciation reduces the price of exports in terms of foreign currency, making them more competitive abroad. Simultaneously, it increases the price of imports in terms of domestic currency, making foreign goods less attractive to domestic consumers. Assuming domestic consumers switch to locally produced goods and foreign consumers purchase more exports, the trade volume improves. We can represent this on an AD/AS diagram: an increase in net exports (X-M) shifts the Aggregate Demand (AD) curve to the right, increasing real output and potentially restoring balance. Analysis of the Marshall-Lerner Condition: The success of depreciation relies on the Marshall-Lerner condition, which states that depreciation will only improve the current account balance if the absolute sum of the price elasticities of demand for exports and imports is greater than one (|PEDx + PEDm| > 1). If demand is price-inelastic, the total expenditure on imports will rise and export revenue will fall, worsening the deficit. Evaluation Point 1 (The J-Curve Effect): In the short run, the Marshall-Lerner condition often does not hold because trade contracts are pre-signed and consumer habits take time to change, meaning PED for both exports and imports is inelastic. As a result, the current account deficit initially worsens. Over the medium-to-long term, as consumers and firms adjust, demand becomes more elastic, and the trade balance improves. This is illustrated by the J-curve diagram, which plots the trade balance over time. Evaluation Point 2 (Imported Inflation): A weaker currency raises the price of essential imported raw materials and finished goods. This can lead to cost-push inflation, which increases domestic costs of production and shifts the Short-Run Aggregate Supply (SRAS) curve to the left. If domestic inflation rises, the initial price-competitiveness gain from depreciation is eroded, neutralizing the policy's benefits. Evaluation Point 3 (Alternative Policies): To evaluate if depreciation is the 'most effective' policy, it must be compared to alternatives. If the deficit is cyclical (caused by excess domestic demand), expenditure-reducing policies such as contractionary fiscal policy (higher taxes, lower government spending) or tight monetary policy (higher interest rates) are highly effective at dampening import demand. If the deficit is structural (due to poor productivity, lack of innovation, or weak infrastructure), then supply-side policies (education, training, deregulation) are far more effective in the long run than depreciation, as they address the root cause of non-price uncompetitiveness. Conclusion: In conclusion, while a depreciation can be highly effective in the medium term if the Marshall-Lerner condition is met, it is rarely the most effective policy on its own for a persistent deficit. If the deficit is structural, relying solely on depreciation will lead to a continuous cycle of currency decline and inflation. Therefore, a policy mix combining depreciation with supply-side reforms and appropriate domestic demand management is the most effective approach to achieve long-term external stability.
Marking scheme
AO1 (Knowledge and Understanding) - 6 marks: Clear, accurate definitions of current account deficit, depreciation, and related economic concepts (Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve). Excellent understanding of expenditure-switching vs. expenditure-reducing mechanisms. AO2 (Application) - 4 marks: Relevant application of the concepts to the context of correcting a balance of payments deficit, with appropriate references to export and import demand elasticities. AO3 (Analysis) - 5 marks: Coherent, structured analysis of how depreciation works to change relative prices, affect export revenue and import expenditure, and the subsequent impacts on AD/AS and trade balances. Use of diagrams (such as J-curve or AD/AS) to support the analysis is highly rewarded. AO4 (Evaluation) - 5 marks: Balanced and critical evaluation of the view. Detailed discussion of the limitations of depreciation (J-curve, imported inflation, retaliation risks) and comparison with alternative policies (monetary, fiscal, and supply-side policies). A well-justified final judgment is provided on whether depreciation is the 'most' effective policy.