(i) Define the term natural population decrease. [1]
(ii) Explain how birth rate is calculated. [2]
(iii) Suggest three reasons why death rates have fallen in many LEDCs. [3]
(iv) Describe four problems caused by overpopulation in rural areas of LEDCs. [4]
(b) The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) shows changes in birth and death rates over time.
(i) Imagine a country with a birth rate of 10 per 1000 and a death rate of 10 per 1000. Identify the stage of the DTM this country is likely in, and explain why. [3]
(ii) Explain how social and economic factors can lead to a decrease in birth rates. [5]
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Worked solution
(ii) Birth rate is calculated as the number of live births per 1000 people of the population in a year.
(iii) Death rates have fallen due to: 1. Improvements in healthcare and medical technology (e.g., vaccinations, hospitals). 2. Better sanitation and cleaner water supplies. 3. Improved food security, diet, and nutrition.
(iv) Problems caused by overpopulation in rural areas include: 1. Pressure on land/overcultivation leading to soil erosion. 2. Deforestation for fuelwood and housing. 3. High rates of unemployment or underemployment. 4. Severe pressure on local schools, clinics, and basic infrastructure.
(b)(i) Stage 4 or Stage 5. Both birth rate and death rate are low and equal, indicating zero population growth or population stabilization, which is characteristic of Stage 4 (or Stage 5 if decreasing further).
(ii) 1. Increased female education and career opportunities lead women to marry and have children later in life. 2. Rising cost of raising children (education, housing) makes larger families less affordable. 3. Access to family planning, contraception, and sex education. 4. Shift from agricultural to industrial/service economy means children are no longer needed as labor on farms. 5. Government policies (e.g., anti-natalist policies/incentives) encourage smaller families.
Marking scheme
(ii) 1 mark for 'number of live births', 1 mark for 'per 1000 (of the population) per year/annum'.
(iii) 3 marks for three distinct reasons:
- Improvements in healthcare/vaccines/medicines (1)
- Improved access to clean water/sanitation (1)
- Better diet/nutrition/food supply (1)
- Lower infant mortality (1)
- Peace/absence of war (1)
(iv) 4 marks for four distinct problems:
- Land fragmentation/plots too small (1)
- Overcultivation/soil exhaustion (1)
- Deforestation/destruction of habitats (1)
- Unemployment/underemployment (1)
- Overcrowding/pressure on schools/hospitals (1)
- Water shortage/pollution (1)
(b)(i) 1 mark for identifying Stage 4 (or 5).
2 marks for explanation: low birth rate and low death rate (1) resulting in a stable or zero population growth (1).
(b)(ii) 5 marks (up to 5 @ 1 mark or development):
- Increased focus on careers/education for women (1) -> delaying marriage/childbearing (dev) (1)
- Rising costs of bringing up children/education (1) -> families choose to have fewer children (dev) (1)
- Availability and knowledge of family planning/contraceptives (1)
- Mechanisation of farming/urbanisation (1) -> children no longer needed for farm labor (dev) (1)
- Pensions/old-age support (1) -> parents don't need children to care for them in old age (dev) (1)
- Anti-natalist policies/family size limits (1)