An original Thinka practice paper modelled on the structure and difficulty of the May 2025 HL (TZ2) IB Diploma Programme Mathematics - Applications and Interpretation paper. Not affiliated with or reproduced from IB.
卷一
Answer all questions. Answers must be written within the answer boxes provided. A GDC is required.
16 題目 · 110 分
題目 1 · Short-response
6.875 分
A local bakery owner takes out a loan of $15\,000 to purchase a new commercial oven. The loan interest rate is \(4.8\%\) per annum, compounded monthly. The loan is to be repaid over 3 years with equal monthly payments.
(a) Calculate the monthly payment.
(b) Find the total interest paid over the 3-year life of the loan.
(c) Calculate the outstanding balance of the loan after 1.5 years (18 payments).
(a) Using a GDC TVM Solver: \(PMT = 447.82\text{ USD}\).
(b) Total amount paid = \(447.82 \times 36 = 16121.52\text{ USD}\). Total interest paid = \(16121.52 - 15000 = 1121.52\text{ USD}\) (accept $1121.45 if the unrounded monthly payment of \(447.818...\) is used).
(c) To find the outstanding balance after 18 payments, we find \(FV\) at \(N = 18\): Using a GDC TVM Solver with \(PV = -15000\), \(I\% = 4.8\), \(PMT = 447.82\), \(N = 18\): \(FV = 7775.53\text{ USD}\) (accept $7775.55 if the unrounded PMT is used).
評分準則
(a) (M1) for substituting correct values into GDC TVM Solver or equivalent formula. (A1) for \(447.82\).
(b) (M1) for multiplying the monthly payment by 36 and subtracting 15000. (A1) for \(1121.52\) (or \(1121.45\) from unrounded values).
(c) (M1) for setting \(N = 18\) in GDC TVM Solver or equivalent formula. (A1) for \(7775.53\) (or \(7775.55\)).
題目 2 · Short-response
6.875 分
Three water reservoirs are located at \(A(2, 8)\), \(B(8, 8)\), and \(C(1, 1)\), where the coordinates are in kilometres. A Voronoi diagram is constructed to divide the region into cells nearest to each reservoir.
(a) Write down the equation of the boundary line (perpendicular bisector) between the cells of reservoir \(A\) and reservoir \(B\).
(b) Find the equation of the boundary line (perpendicular bisector) between the cells of reservoir \(A\) and reservoir \(C\). Give your answer in the form \(y = mx + c\).
(c) Determine the coordinates of the Voronoi vertex \(V\) where the boundaries of the cells meet.
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解題
(a) The reservoirs \(A(2, 8)\) and \(B(8, 8)\) lie on a horizontal line. The midpoint of \(AB\) is \(\left(\frac{2+8}{2}, 8\right) = (5, 8)\). The perpendicular bisector is the vertical line \(x = 5\).
(b) The midpoint of \(AC\) is \(\left(\frac{2+1}{2}, \frac{8+1}{2}\right) = (1.5, 4.5)\). The gradient of the line segment \(AC\) is \(m_{AC} = \frac{1-8}{1-2} = 7\). The gradient of the perpendicular bisector is \(m_{\perp} = -\frac{1}{7}\). Using the point-slope formula with \((1.5, 4.5)\): \(y - 4.5 = -\frac{1}{7}(x - 1.5)\) \(y = -\frac{1}{7}x + \frac{1.5}{7} + 4.5 = -\frac{1}{7}x + \frac{3}{14} + \frac{63}{14} = -\frac{1}{7}x + \frac{66}{14}\) \(y = -\frac{1}{7}x + \frac{33}{7}\).
(c) Substitute \(x = 5\) into the equation of the perpendicular bisector of \(AC\): \(y = -\frac{1}{7}(5) + \frac{33}{7} = \frac{28}{7} = 4\). So the Voronoi vertex is \(V(5, 4)\).
評分準則
(a) (M1) for finding the midpoint \((5,8)\) or recognizing it is vertical. (A1) for \(x = 5\).
(b) (M1) for finding the midpoint \((1.5, 4.5)\) and the gradient of \(AC\) as \(7\). (M1) for finding the perpendicular gradient \(-\frac{1}{7}\) and substituting into the line equation. (A1) for \(y = -\frac{1}{7}x + \frac{33}{7}\) (or equivalent).
(c) (M1) for attempting to solve the system of equations. (A1) for \((5, 4)\).
題目 3 · Short-response
6.875 分
A rectangular storage area is to be built against a straight brick wall, meaning only three sides need fencing. The area of the storage space must be exactly \(242\text{ m}^2\). Let the length of the side parallel to the wall be \(x\) metres and the length of the two sides perpendicular to the wall be \(y\) metres.
(a) Write down an expression for \(y\) in terms of \(x\).
(b) Show that the total length of fencing required, \(L\), is given by \(L = x + \frac{484}{x}\).
(c) Find \(\frac{\text{d}L}{\text{d}x}\).
(d) Hence, find the minimum total length of fencing required to enclose the storage area.
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解題
(a) The area of the rectangular region is \(xy = 242\). Thus, \(y = \frac{242}{x}\).
(b) The total length of fencing is the sum of the three sides: \(L = x + 2y\) Substituting \(y = \frac{242}{x}\) into the formula: \(L = x + 2\left(\frac{242}{x}\right) = x + \frac{484}{x}\).
(d) To find the minimum total length, set \(\frac{\text{d}L}{\text{d}x} = 0\): \(1 - \frac{484}{x^2} = 0 \Rightarrow x^2 = 484 \Rightarrow x = 22\) (since \(x > 0\)). Substituting \(x = 22\) back into the expression for \(L\): \(L = 22 + \frac{484}{22} = 22 + 22 = 44\text{ m}\).
評分準則
(a) (A1) for \(y = \frac{242}{x}\).
(b) (M1) for expressing \(L = x + 2y\) and substituting \(y\). (AG) for showing \(L = x + \frac{484}{x}\) clearly with no missing steps.
(c) (M1) for taking derivative. (A1) for \(1 - \frac{484}{x^2}\).
(d) (M1) for setting \(\frac{\text{d}L}{\text{d}x} = 0\) and solving for \(x\). (A1) for \(44\text{ m}\).
題目 4 · Short-response
6.875 分
The masses of bags of flour produced at a mill are normally distributed with a mean of \(1.02\text{ kg}\) and a standard deviation of \(0.015\text{ kg}\).
(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen bag of flour has a mass of less than \(1.00\text{ kg}\).
(b) Any bag with a mass of less than \(1.00\text{ kg}\) is rejected. Out of a batch of 500 bags, find the expected number of bags that are rejected.
(c) A customer buys a bag that was not rejected. Find the probability that its mass is between \(1.01\text{ kg}\) and \(1.03\text{ kg}\).
(b) Expected value \(E(Y) = n \times p = 500 \times 0.091211 \approx 45.6\).
(c) This is a conditional probability: \(P(1.01 \le X \le 1.03 \mid X \ge 1.00) = \frac{P(1.01 \le X \le 1.03)}{P(X \ge 1.00)}\). Using GDC: \(P(1.01 \le X \le 1.03) \approx 0.495015\) \(P(X \ge 1.00) = 1 - P(X < 1.00) \approx 1 - 0.091211 = 0.908789\). Conditional probability = \(\frac{0.495015}{0.908789} \approx 0.545\) (to 3 s.f.).
評分準則
(a) (M1) for setting up the normal probability on GDC. (A1) for \(0.0912\).
(b) (M1) for multiplying their probability from (a) by 500. (A1) for \(45.6\).
(c) (M1) for setting up the conditional probability. (M1) for calculating the numerator \(0.495015\) or the denominator \(0.908789\). (A1) for \(0.545\) (accept \(0.544\) depending on intermediate rounding).
題目 5 · Short-response
6.875 分
The concentration of a drug in a patient's bloodstream, \(C\), in \(\text{mg L}^{-1}\), \(t\) hours after injection is modelled by the function: \[C(t) = \frac{12t}{t^2 + 4}, \quad t \ge 0.\]
(a) Find the concentration of the drug in the bloodstream after 1 hour.
(b) Find the maximum concentration of the drug and the time at which this occurs.
(c) Find the range of times after the injection when the concentration of the drug is at least \(2.5 \text{ mg L}^{-1}\).
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解題
(a) Substitute \(t = 1\) into the model: \(C(1) = \frac{12(1)}{1^2 + 4} = 2.4 \text{ mg L}^{-1}\).
(b) Using the quotient rule to find the derivative: \(C'(t) = \frac{12(t^2 + 4) - 12t(2t)}{(t^2 + 4)^2} = \frac{48 - 12t^2}{(t^2 + 4)^2}\). Set \(C'(t) = 0 \Rightarrow 48 - 12t^2 = 0 \Rightarrow t = 2\) (since \(t \ge 0\)). At \(t = 2\), the maximum concentration is \(C(2) = \frac{12(2)}{2^2 + 4} = 3 \text{ mg L}^{-1}\). (Alternatively, this can be solved using the GDC maximum feature).
(c) Set \(C(t) \ge 2.5\): \(\frac{12t}{t^2 + 4} \ge 2.5 \Rightarrow 12t \ge 2.5t^2 + 10 \Rightarrow 2.5t^2 - 12t + 10 \le 0\). Using GDC to solve the quadratic equation \(2.5t^2 - 12t + 10 = 0\): \(t_1 \approx 1.07\) hours, \(t_2 \approx 3.73\) hours. Thus, the concentration is at least \(2.5 \text{ mg L}^{-1}\) for \(1.07 \le t \le 3.73\) hours.
評分準則
(a) (A1) for \(2.4\).
(b) (M1) for attempting to find the derivative or using GDC graph maximum finder. (A1) for \(t = 2\). (A1) for maximum concentration \(3\).
(c) (M1) for setting up the inequality \(C(t) \ge 2.5\). (M1) for finding the critical values \(t \approx 1.07\) and \(t \approx 3.73\). (A1) for \(1.07 \le t \le 3.73\) hours.
題目 6 · Short-response
6.875 分
The speed of a runner during the first 12 seconds of a race is recorded at various time intervals, as shown in the table below:
(a) Use the trapezoidal rule to estimate the total distance run in the first 12 seconds.
(b) A model for the runner's speed is given by the function \(u(t) = 10(1 - e^{-0.25t})\). (i) Find the acceleration of the runner according to this model at \(t = 3\) seconds. (ii) Find the total distance run in the first 12 seconds according to this model.
(b) (i) Acceleration is the derivative of velocity: \(a(t) = u'(t) = 10 \times (0.25 e^{-0.25t}) = 2.5 e^{-0.25t}\). At \(t = 3\): \(a(3) = 2.5 e^{-0.75} \approx 1.18\text{ m s}^{-2}\) (to 3 s.f.). (Alternatively, using GDC numerical derivative at \(t = 3\)).
(b) (ii) Distance is the integral of velocity: \(\text{Distance} = \int_{0}^{12} 10(1 - e^{-0.25t}) \text{ d}t\). Using GDC to integrate: \(\text{Distance} \approx 82.0\text{ m}\) (to 3 s.f.).
評分準則
(a) (M1) for correct substitution into the trapezoidal rule formula. (A1) for \(77.1\text{ m}\).
(b)(i) (M1) for finding the derivative function \(u'(t)\) or using GDC numerical derivative. (A1) for \(1.18\text{ m s}^{-2}\).
(b)(ii) (M1) for setting up the definite integral expression. (A1) for \(82.0\text{ m}\).
題目 7 · Short-response
6.875 分
A study was conducted to investigate whether there is an association between the type of exercise preferred (Cardio, Strength, Yoga) and age group (Under 30, 30 and Over). A random sample of 250 gym members was surveyed, and the observed frequencies are shown in the table below:
(b) Show that the expected frequency of members Under 30 who prefer Yoga is 31.2.
(c) Perform a \(\chi^2\) test for independence at the \(5\%\) significance level. (i) Write down the \(p\)-value for this test. (ii) State, with a reason, the conclusion of the test.
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解題
(a) \(H_0\): The type of exercise preferred and age group are independent (or there is no association between exercise preferred and age group).
(c) (i) Inputting the \(2 \times 3\) table into GDC and performing a \(\chi^2\) test of independence: \(\chi^2 \approx 6.235\), degrees of freedom = 2. \(p\text{-value} \approx 0.0443\).
(c) (ii) Since the \(p\text{-value} \approx 0.0443 < 0.05\) (the significance level), we reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence at the \(5\%\) significance level to suggest that preferred exercise type and age group are associated.
評分準則
(a) (A1) for stating the null hypothesis clearly.
(b) (M1) for identifying row, column and grand totals. (A1) for showing the calculation resulting in \(31.2\).
(c)(i) (M1) for putting values into GDC matrix. (A1) for \(0.0443\).
(c)(ii) (R1) for comparing their \(p\)-value with \(0.05\). (A1) for a consistent conclusion of rejecting the null hypothesis.
題目 8 · Short-response
6.875 分
A tree is planted, and in its first year, it grows to a height of \(1.5\text{ m}\). Each subsequent year, its height increases by a percentage of its growth in the previous year. Specifically, the annual growth in the \(n\)-th year, \(G_n\), forms a geometric sequence where the first year's growth is \(1.5\text{ m}\) and the second year's growth is \(1.2\text{ m}\).
(a) Find the common ratio of the sequence.
(b) Find the growth in the 5th year.
(c) Assuming this pattern of growth continues indefinitely: (i) Find the maximum height the tree can eventually reach. (ii) Determine after how many years the tree's height will exceed \(90\%\) of its maximum possible height.
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解題
(a) \(r = \frac{1.2}{1.5} = 0.8\).
(b) Growth in the 5th year: \(G_5 = 1.5 \times 0.8^4 = 0.6144 \approx 0.614\text{ m}\) (to 3 s.f.).
(c) (i) The total height of the tree is the sum of an infinite geometric series: \(S_{\infty} = \frac{1.5}{1 - 0.8} = \frac{1.5}{0.2} = 7.5\text{ m}\).
(c) (ii) We want to find the smallest \(n\) such that \(S_n > 0.9 \times 7.5 = 6.75\text{ m}\). \(S_n = \frac{1.5(1 - 0.8^n)}{1 - 0.8} = 7.5(1 - 0.8^n)\). Set up inequality: \(7.5(1 - 0.8^n) > 6.75 \Rightarrow 1 - 0.8^n > 0.9 \Rightarrow 0.8^n < 0.1\). Solving this using logarithms: \(n > \frac{\ln(0.1)}{\ln(0.8)} \approx 10.3\). Since \(n\) must be an integer, \(n = 11\). Therefore, after 11 years, the tree's height will exceed \(90\%\) of its maximum possible height.
評分準則
(a) (A1) for \(0.8\).
(b) (M1) for \(1.5 \times 0.8^4\). (A1) for \(0.614\text{ m}\) (or \(0.6144\)).
(c)(i) (M1) for using the infinite sum formula. (A1) for \(7.5\text{ m}\).
(c)(ii) (M1) for setting up the inequality \(S_n > 6.75\). (M1) for using GDC table, solver or logarithms to solve the inequality. (A1) for 11 years.
題目 9 · short-response
6.875 分
A company purchases a delivery van for $45,000. The value of the van depreciates at a constant rate of 12% per year. (a) Calculate the value of the van after 5 years. Give your answer to the nearest dollar. (b) Find the number of complete years it will take for the value of the van to first fall below $15,000.
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解題
(a) Using the geometric decay formula: \(V = P(1 - r)^t\). Here, \(P = 45000\), \(r = 0.12\), and \(t = 5\). \(V = 45000 \times (0.88)^5 \approx 23747.98\). To the nearest dollar, the value is $23748. (b) We need to find the smallest integer \(n\) such that \(45000 \times (0.88)^n < 15000\). This simplifies to \((0.88)^n < \frac{1}{3}\). Taking the natural logarithm on both sides: \(n \ln(0.88) < \ln(1/3)\). Since \(\ln(0.88)\) is negative, reversing the inequality gives \(n > \frac{\ln(1/3)}{\ln(0.88)} \approx 8.59\). Thus, it takes 9 complete years.
評分準則
Part (a): [M1] for setting up the correct depreciation equation: \(45000 \times 0.88^5\). [A1] for the correct final answer of 23748 (accept 23748 or $23748). Part (b): [M1] for setting up the inequality or equation \(45000 \times 0.88^n < 15000\). [A1] for finding the decimal value \(n \approx 8.59\). [A1] for the final answer of 9 (years).
題目 10 · short-response
6.875 分
A gardener wants to fence off a rectangular vegetable plot against an existing brick wall, using 80 meters of fencing. No fencing is needed along the wall. (a) Show that the area \(A\) of the plot is given by \(A = 80x - 2x^2\), where \(x\) is the width of the plot perpendicular to the wall. (b) Find the maximum possible area of the vegetable plot.
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解題
(a) Let \(x\) be the width perpendicular to the wall and \(y\) be the length parallel to the wall. The total length of the fence is \(2x + y = 80\), which gives \(y = 80 - 2x\). The area \(A\) of the rectangle is \(A = x \times y = x(80 - 2x) = 80x - 2x^2\). (b) To find the maximum area, differentiate \(A\) with respect to \(x\): \(\frac{dA}{dx} = 80 - 4x\). Setting the derivative to zero for a maximum: \(80 - 4x = 0 \implies x = 20\). Substitute \(x = 20\) back into the area formula: \(A = 80(20) - 2(20)^2 = 1600 - 800 = 800 \text{ m}^2\).
評分準則
Part (a): [M1] for expressing the length \(y\) in terms of \(x\) as \(y = 80 - 2x\). [A1] for multiplying by \(x\) to obtain the area formula \(A = 80x - 2x^2\) clearly. Part (b): [M1] for differentiating \(A\) to get \(80 - 4x\). [M1] for setting their derivative to zero. [A1] for finding \(x = 20\). [A1] for calculating the correct maximum area of 800 (accept \(800 \text{ m}^2\)).
題目 11 · short-response
6.875 分
The weights of apples in an orchard are normally distributed with a mean of 150 grams and a standard deviation of 12 grams. (a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen apple weighs more than 165 grams. (b) Apples weighing less than \(w\) grams are classified as small. Given that 15% of the apples are classified as small, find the value of \(w\) correct to three significant figures.
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解題
(a) Let \(X\) be the weight of an apple, where \(X \sim N(150, 12^2)\). Using a GDC to find \(P(X > 165)\) yields \(P(X > 165) \approx 0.1056\). To three significant figures, this is 0.106. (b) We are given \(P(X < w) = 0.15\). Using the inverse normal function on a GDC with mean 150 and standard deviation 12, we find \(w \approx 137.56\). To three significant figures, \(w = 138\).
評分準則
Part (a): [M1] for writing a correct probability statement \(P(X > 165)\). [A1] for 0.106 (accept 0.1056). Part (b): [M1] for setting up the equation \(P(X < w) = 0.15\) or showing an inverse normal setup. [A1] for 137.56. [A1] for rounding to 138 (accept 138g).
題目 12 · short-response
6.875 分
Two cell phone towers are located at coordinates \(A(2, 5)\) and \(B(8, -1)\). (a) Find the coordinates of the midpoint of the line segment \(AB\). (b) Find the equation of the perpendicular bisector of \(AB\), which represents the boundary between the coverage zones. Write your answer in the form \(y = mx + c\).
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解題
(a) The midpoint \(M\) of \(AB\) is given by \(\left(\frac{2+8}{2}, \frac{5 + (-1)}{2}\right) = (5, 2)\). (b) The gradient of the line segment \(AB\) is \(m_{AB} = \frac{-1 - 5}{8 - 2} = \frac{-6}{6} = -1\). The gradient of the perpendicular bisector is the negative reciprocal of \(-1\), which is \(m_{\perp} = 1\). Using the midpoint \((5, 2)\) in the point-slope form: \(y - 2 = 1(x - 5) \implies y = x - 3\).
評分準則
Part (a): [M1] for the midpoint formula setup. [A1] for the correct midpoint coordinates (5, 2). Part (b): [M1] for finding the gradient of \(AB\) as \(-1\). [M1] for finding the perpendicular gradient as \(1\). [A1] for substituting the midpoint and perpendicular gradient into a line equation. [A1] for the final simplified equation \(y = x - 3\).
題目 13 · short-response
6.875 分
The temperature \(T\) (in degrees Celsius) of a hot cup of tea after \(t\) minutes is modeled by the function \(T(t) = 22 + ae^{-kt}\), where \(a\) and \(k\) are positive constants. When \(t = 0\), the temperature is 85 degrees Celsius. (a) Find the value of \(a\). (b) After 5 minutes, the temperature of the tea is 60 degrees Celsius. Find the value of \(k\) correct to three significant figures. (c) Find the temperature of the tea after 15 minutes.
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解題
(a) At \(t=0\), \(T(0) = 22 + a e^0 = 22 + a = 85\). Solving for \(a\) gives \(a = 63\). (b) At \(t=5\), \(T(5) = 22 + 63 e^{-5k} = 60\). This simplifies to \(63 e^{-5k} = 38 \implies e^{-5k} = \frac{38}{63}\). Taking the natural logarithm: \(-5k = \ln\left(\frac{38}{63}\right) \implies k = -\frac{1}{5}\ln\left(\frac{38}{63}\right) \approx 0.1011\). To three significant figures, \(k = 0.101\). (c) When \(t = 15\), \(T(15) = 22 + 63 e^{-15(0.1011...)} \approx 22 + 13.87 = 35.87\). To three significant figures, the temperature is 35.9 degrees Celsius.
評分準則
Part (a): [M1] for setting up the equation \(22 + a = 85\). [A1] for \(a = 63\). Part (b): [M1] for substituting \(T=60\), \(t=5\), and their \(a\) value into the model. [M1] for algebraic steps or GDC usage to solve for \(k\). [A1] for \(k = 0.101\) (accept 0.1011). Part (c): [M1] for substituting \(t=15\) and their parameters into the model. [A1] for 35.9.
題目 14 · short-response
6.875 分
A cinema sells three types of tickets: Adult, Child, and Senior. Let \(A\), \(C\), and \(S\) represent the individual prices in dollars of an Adult, Child, and Senior ticket respectively. (1) A group of 2 adults, 3 children, and 1 senior pays $51. (2) A group of 3 adults, 1 child, and 2 seniors pays $57. (3) A group of 1 adult, 4 children, and 1 senior pays $45. (a) Write down a system of three linear equations representing this information. (b) Find the price of each ticket type.
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解題
(a) From the statements, we write: \(2A + 3C + S = 51\), \(3A + C + 2S = 57\), and \(A + 4C + S = 45\). (b) This system can be written in matrix form: \(\begin{pmatrix} 2 & 3 & 1 \\ 3 & 1 & 2 \\ 1 & 4 & 1 \end{pmatrix} \begin{pmatrix} A \\ C \\ S \end{pmatrix} = \begin{pmatrix} 51 \\ 57 \\ 45 \end{pmatrix}\). Solving using a graphic display calculator yields: \(A = 12.50\), \(C = 6.50\), \(S = 6.50\). Thus, an Adult ticket costs $12.50, a Child ticket costs $6.50, and a Senior ticket costs $6.50.
評分準則
Part (a): [M1] for attempting to formulate three linear equations. [A1] for all three correct equations. Part (b): [M1] for setting up the matrix system or displaying an algebraic elimination method. [A1] for Adult = $12.50. [A1] for Child = $6.50. [A1] for Senior = $6.50. (Award at most [A2] if currency/decimal format is totally omitted, but accept correct numerical answers).
題目 15 · short-response
6.875 分
A survey of 200 participants is conducted to determine if a person's favorite music genre (Pop, Rock, Classical) is independent of their gender. The results are summarized below: Male: 35 Pop, 45 Rock, 20 Classical. Female: 45 Pop, 30 Rock, 25 Classical. (a) State the null hypothesis \(H_0\) for this test. (b) Calculate the expected frequency of females who prefer Rock music. (c) Find the \(p\)-value for this test and state, with a reason, whether to reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.
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解題
(a) The null hypothesis \(H_0\): A person's favorite music genre is independent of their gender. (b) Total females = 100. Total who prefer Rock = 45 + 30 = 75. Expected frequency \(= \frac{100 \times 75}{200} = 37.5\). (c) Using the GDC's chi-squared two-way test with observed matrix: \(\begin{pmatrix} 35 & 45 & 20 \\ 45 & 30 & 25 \end{pmatrix}\), we obtain \(\chi^2 \approx 4.806\) and \(p\text{-value} \approx 0.0905\). Since the \(p\text{-value} = 0.0905 > 0.05\), we fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.
評分準則
Part (a): [A1] for stating a correct null hypothesis mentioning 'independent'. Part (b): [M1] for the formula \((100 \times 75) / 200\). [A1] for 37.5. Part (c): [M1] for entering data correctly into GDC and finding the \(p\)-value. [A1] for \(p \approx 0.0905\). [R1] for comparing \(p\)-value to 0.05 and concluding correctly to not reject \(H_0\).
題目 16 · short-response
6.875 分
A particle moves in a straight line such that its velocity \(v(t)\) in meters per second at time \(t\) seconds is given by \(v(t) = 3t^2 - 4t + 5\), for \(0 \le t \le 4\). (a) Find the initial velocity of the particle. (b) Find the acceleration of the particle at \(t = 3\) seconds. (c) Find the total distance travelled by the particle in the first 4 seconds.
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解題
(a) The initial velocity is when \(t = 0\): \(v(0) = 3(0)^2 - 4(0) + 5 = 5 \text{ m s}^{-1}\). (b) Acceleration is the derivative of velocity: \(a(t) = \frac{dv}{dt} = 6t - 4\). At \(t = 3\), \(a(3) = 6(3) - 4 = 14 \text{ m s}^{-2}\). (c) The total distance is given by \(\int_0^4 |v(t)| dt\). Since \(v(t) = 3t^2 - 4t + 5\) has no real roots (the discriminant is negative), \(v(t) > 0\) for all \(t\). Therefore, distance \(= \int_0^4 (3t^2 - 4t + 5) dt = [t^3 - 2t^2 + 5t]_0^4 = (4^3 - 2(4)^2 + 5(4)) - 0 = 64 - 32 + 20 = 52 \text{ meters}\).
評分準則
Part (a): [A1] for 5. Part (b): [M1] for differentiating to find \(a(t) = 6t - 4\). [A1] for substituting \(t=3\) to get 14. Part (c): [M1] for setting up the integral \(\int_0^4 (3t^2 - 4t + 5) dt\). [M1] for correct integration to obtain \(t^3 - 2t^2 + 5t\). [A1] for substituting limits and obtaining 52.
卷二
Answer all questions in the answer booklet provided. A GDC is required.
7 題目 · 109.97000000000003 分
題目 1 · Extended-response
15.71 分
A closed cylindrical storage container of volume \(2\text{ m}^3\) is constructed with a flat circular base of radius \(r\) metres, a flat circular top, and cylindrical side walls. The base and top cost $15 per \(\text{m}^2\) to construct, while the curved side walls cost $10 per \(\text{m}^2\).
(a) Express the height \(h\) of the cylinder in terms of the radius \(r\). [2] (b) Show that the total cost of construction \(C(r)\), in dollars, is given by \(C(r) = 30\pi r^2 + \frac{40}{r}\). [4] (c) Find \(\frac{\text{d}C}{\text{d}r}\). [3] (d) Find the value of \(r\) which minimizes the total cost. [3] (e) Calculate the minimum cost of constructing the container. [2] (f) State the mathematical restriction on the domain of \(r\) in this physical context. [2]
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解題
(a) The volume of a cylinder is given by \(V = \pi r^2 h\). Since \(V = 2\), we have: \(\pi r^2 h = 2 \implies h = \frac{2}{\pi r^2}\).
(b) The total cost consists of the cost of the base and top, and the cost of the curved side walls. Area of base and top = \(2 \pi r^2\). Cost of base and top = \(15 \times 2 \pi r^2 = 30 \pi r^2\). Area of curved side walls = \(2 \pi r h\). Cost of curved side walls = \(10 \times 2 \pi r h = 20 \pi r h\). Substitute \(h = \frac{2}{\pi r^2}\) into the curved side walls cost: Cost of side walls = \(20 \pi r \left(\frac{2}{\pi r^2}\right) = \frac{40}{r}\). Thus, the total cost \(C(r)\) is: \(C(r) = 30 \pi r^2 + \frac{40}{r}\).
(c) Differentiating \(C(r)\) with respect to \(r\): \(\frac{\text{d}C}{\text{d}r} = 60\pi r - 40r^{-2} = 60\pi r - \frac{40}{r^2}\).
(d) To find the minimum cost, set \(\frac{\text{d}C}{\text{d}r} = 0\): \(60\pi r - \frac{40}{r^2} = 0 \implies 60\pi r^3 = 40 \implies r^3 = \frac{40}{60\pi} = \frac{2}{3\pi}\). \(r = \left(\frac{2}{3\pi}\right)^{1/3} \approx 0.596\text{ m}\) (3 s.f.).
(e) Substitute \(r \approx 0.5963\) back into the cost function: \(C(0.5963) = 30\pi(0.5963)^2 + \frac{40}{0.5963} \approx 33.51 + 67.08 = 100.59\text{ dollars}\).
(f) Since \(r\) represents a physical radius, it must be strictly positive. Thus, the restriction is \(r > 0\).
評分準則
(a) M1: Attempt to use cylinder volume formula. A1: Correct expression for \(h\) in terms of \(r\).
(b) M1: Attempt to write cost expression for base and top. M1: Attempt to write cost expression for side walls. M1: Substituting \(h\) into the total cost equation. A1: Correctly showing the final given expression.
(c) M1: Attempt to differentiate at least one term. A1: Correct derivative of the quadratic term. A1: Correct derivative of the reciprocal term.
(d) M1: Setting derivative equal to zero. M1: Rearranging to solve for \(r^3\). A1: Correct value of \(r\) (approx. 0.596).
(e) M1: Substituting their \(r\) into the cost function. A1: Correct minimum cost to 2 decimal places.
(f) R1: Reasoning that radius must be positive. A1: Correct inequality or interval notation.
題目 2 · Extended-response
15.71 分
A researcher studies the relationship between the number of hours of sleep a student gets the night before an exam, \(x\), and their exam score, \(y\) (out of 100). The data for 8 students is shown in the table below:
(a) For this data, find: (i) the Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient, \(r\); [2] (ii) the equation of the regression line of \(y\) on \(x\). [2] (b) Interpret the meaning of the gradient of the regression line in the context of this study. [2] (c) A student sleeps for 7.5 hours the night before the exam. Estimate their exam score using the regression line. [2] (d) State, with a reason, whether this estimate is reliable. [2] (e) Calculate the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, \(r_s\), for this data. [4] (f) Suggest a reason why a researcher might prefer to use Spearman's rank correlation coefficient instead of Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient. [2]
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解題
(a) (i) Using a GDC on the given data: \(r \approx 0.993\) (0.99270...). (ii) The regression line of \(y\) on \(x\) is \(y = ax + b\), where: \(a \approx 8.295\), \(b \approx 14.49\). Thus, \(y = 8.30x + 14.5\) (3 s.f.).
(b) The gradient (8.30) represents that for each additional hour of sleep a student gets, their exam score is predicted to increase by 8.30 marks.
(c) Substituting \(x = 7.5\) into the regression equation: \(y = 8.295(7.5) + 14.49 \approx 76.7\) (3 s.f.).
(d) The estimate is highly reliable because \(x = 7.5\) lies within the range of the original data (interpolation) and there is a very strong positive correlation between hours of sleep and exam scores (\(r \approx 0.993\)).
(e) First, rank the data for \(x\) and \(y\): Ranks of \(x\): [2.5, 5.5, 4, 7, 1, 8, 5.5, 2.5] Ranks of \(y\): [2, 5, 4, 7, 1, 8, 6, 3] Using the GDC to calculate the Pearson correlation on these ranks (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient): \(r_s \approx 0.982\) (or \(r_s \approx 0.988\) if using the formula \(1 - \frac{6\sum d^2}{n(n^2-1)}\)).
(f) Spearman's rank correlation is less sensitive to extreme outliers and does not assume a strictly linear relationship, only requiring the relationship to be monotonic.
評分準則
(a) (i) M1: Enter data in GDC list. A1: Correct value of \(r\) to 3 s.f. (ii) A1: Correct gradient (8.30). A1: Correct y-intercept (14.5).
(b) R1: Mentioning the rate of change (increase of score). R1: Linking the change to one additional hour of sleep.
(c) M1: Substituting 7.5 into their regression equation. A1: Correct score of 76.7.
(d) R1: Stating the estimate is reliable. R1: Providing both valid reasons (strong correlation and interpolation).
(e) M1: Attempt to rank the \(x\) values. M1: Attempt to rank the \(y\) values. M1: Using ranks in GDC calculation or formula. A1: Correct value of \(r_s\) (0.982 or 0.988).
Elena wants to buy an apartment that costs $350,000. She pays a 15% deposit and takes out a mortgage loan for the remaining amount.
(a) Calculate the amount of the mortgage loan. [2] The bank offers a 25-year mortgage loan with a nominal annual interest rate of 4.2% compounded monthly. (b) Calculate the monthly repayment Elena must make. [3] (c) Calculate the total interest Elena will pay over the 25-year lifetime of the loan. [3] After 10 years (exactly 120 monthly payments) of making regular repayments, Elena decides to pay off the remaining balance of the loan in full. (d) Find the remaining balance of the loan immediately after the 120th payment is made. [4] (e) Elena has been saving separately in an investment account. At the start of the 10 years, she deposited $120,000 into this account, which pays 5.5% annual interest compounded quarterly. Determine whether Elena has enough in this investment account after 10 years to pay off the remaining mortgage balance. [4]
(b) Using the TVM Solver on a GDC: \(N = 300\) (25 years \(\times\) 12 months) \(I\% = 4.2\) \(PV = 297500\) \(FV = 0\) \(P/Y = 12\) \(C/Y = 12\) Solving for \(PMT\) yields \(-1604.03\). So the monthly repayment is $1604.03.
(d) To find the remaining balance after 120 payments, we evaluate the remaining 180 payments using the TVM Solver: \(N = 180\) \(I\% = 4.2\) \(PMT = -1604.03\) \(FV = 0\) \(P/Y = 12\) \(C/Y = 12\) Solving for \(PV\) yields \(213925.44\). The remaining balance is $213,925.44.
(e) Using compound interest formula for the investment account: \(A = P\left(1 + \frac{r}{k}\right)^{kt}\) \(P = 120000\), \(r = 0.055\), \(k = 4\), \(t = 10\). \(A = 120000\left(1 + \frac{0.055}{4}\right)^{40} \approx 120000(1.01375)^{40} \approx 207212.43\text{ dollars}\). Since $207,212.43 < $213,925.44, Elena does not have enough in her savings to pay off the remaining balance of the mortgage.
(b) M1: Attempt to use TVM solver with correct parameters (N, I, PV). M1: Setting P/Y and C/Y to 12. A1: Correct monthly repayment ($1604.03).
(c) M1: Attempt to find total repayments made. M1: Subtracting original loan amount from total repayments. A1: Correct total interest ($183,709).
(d) M1: Set up TVM solver for remaining 180 periods (or equivalent method). M1: Correct use of monthly repayment value. A2: Correct remaining balance ($213,925.44).
(e) M1: Correct compound interest formula setup with \(k=4\) and \(n=40\). A1: Correct calculation of future value ($207,212.43). R1: Comparison of the two values. A1: Clear final statement that she does not have enough.
題目 4 · Extended-response
15.71 分
Three distribution centers are located at points \(A(2, 9)\), \(B(8, 7)\), and \(C(4, 3)\) on a coordinate grid, where 1 unit represents 1 km.
(a) Find the equation of the perpendicular bisector of the line segment \(AB\). Write your answer in the form \(y = mx + c\). [4] (b) Find the equation of the perpendicular bisector of the line segment \(AC\). Write your answer in the form \(y = mx + c\). [3] (c) Find the coordinates of the intersection point of these two perpendicular bisectors. [3] (d) A new facility is to be built at this intersection point. Find the distance from this new facility to each of the three distribution centers. [3] (e) State the significance of this intersection point in terms of a Voronoi diagram where \(A\), \(B\), and \(C\) are the sites. [3]
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解題
(a) Midpoint of \(AB = \left(\frac{2+8}{2}, \frac{9+7}{2}\right) = (5, 8)\). Gradient of \(AB = m_{AB} = \frac{7-9}{8-2} = -\frac{1}{3}\). Gradient of the perpendicular bisector = \(-\frac{1}{m_{AB}} = 3\). Equation of the perpendicular bisector: \(y - 8 = 3(x - 5) \implies y = 3x - 7\).
(b) Midpoint of \(AC = \left(\frac{2+4}{2}, \frac{9+3}{2}\right) = (3, 6)\). Gradient of \(AC = m_{AC} = \frac{3-9}{4-2} = -3\). Gradient of the perpendicular bisector = \(-\frac{1}{m_{AC}} = \frac{1}{3}\). Equation of the perpendicular bisector: \(y - 6 = \frac{1}{3}(x - 3) \implies y = \frac{1}{3}x + 5\).
(c) Set the two equations equal to find the intersection point: \(3x - 7 = \frac{1}{3}x + 5 \implies \frac{8}{3}x = 12 \implies x = 4.5\). Substitute \(x = 4.5\) into \(y = 3x - 7\): \(y = 3(4.5) - 7 = 6.5\). The intersection point is \((4.5, 6.5)\).
(e) The intersection point is the circumcenter of the triangle \(ABC\). In a Voronoi diagram, this point represents the Voronoi vertex where the cell boundaries of sites \(A\), \(B\), and \(C\) meet. It is the point that is equidistant to all three sites.
評分準則
(a) A1: Correct midpoint of \(AB\). M1: Correct gradient of \(AB\). M1: Taking negative reciprocal of gradient. A1: Correct equation in requested form.
(b) A1: Correct midpoint of \(AC\). M1: Taking negative reciprocal of gradient. A1: Correct equation in requested form.
(d) M1: Correct use of distance formula. A2: Correct distance of \(3.54\text{ km}\) (accept \(\sqrt{12.5}\)).
(e) R1: Identify as circumcenter. R1: Identify as Voronoi vertex. R1: Identify that it is equidistant from all three sites.
題目 5 · Extended-response
15.71 分
The temperature, \(T\) (in \(^\circ\text{C}\)), of a hot cup of tea left in a room is modeled by the function: \(T(t) = a + b \cdot e^{-0.045t}\), for \(t \ge 0\), where \(t\) is the time in minutes after the tea is made, and \(a\) and \(b\) are constants. The room temperature is constant at \(21^\circ\text{C}\).
(a) State the value of \(a\). [1] (b) Given that the initial temperature of the tea when \(t = 0\) is \(85^\circ\text{C}\): (i) Find the value of \(b\). [2] (ii) Write down the complete function for \(T(t)\). [1] (c) Find the temperature of the tea after 15 minutes. [2] (d) The tea is safe to drink when its temperature falls below \(50^\circ\text{C}\). Find the number of minutes it takes for the tea to become safe to drink. [3] (e) Find an expression for \(t\) in terms of \(T\) (the inverse function \(T^{-1}(T)\)). [3] (f) Sketch the graph of \(T(t)\) for \(0 \le t \le 60\). Clearly label the y-intercept and the horizontal asymptote with their equations or values. [4]
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解題
(a) As \(t \to \infty\), \(e^{-0.045t} \to 0\). Therefore, \(T(t) \to a\), which must represent the constant room temperature. Hence, \(a = 21\).
(b) (i) Substitute \(t = 0\) and \(T = 85\): \(85 = 21 + b \cdot e^{0} \implies 85 = 21 + b \implies b = 64\). (ii) Complete function is \(T(t) = 21 + 64 e^{-0.045t}\).
(f) Graph requirements: - Starts at \((0, 85)\) on the vertical axis. - Smooth decreasing exponential curve. - Horizontal asymptote indicated clearly at the line \(T = 21\) (or marked on the axis).
評分準則
(a) A1: Correct value of \(a = 21\).
(b) (i) M1: Setting up equation with initial condition. A1: Correct value of \(b = 64\). (ii) A1: Correct full function.
(c) M1: Substituting \(t = 15\) into the model. A1: Correct temperature \(53.6\).
(d) M1: Equating function to 50. M1: Use of logs to solve for \(t\). A1: Correct time \(17.6\).
(e) M1: Subtracting 21 and dividing by 64. M1: Applying natural logarithm to both sides. A1: Correct final expression.
(f) A1: Curve with correct general shape. A1: Correct y-intercept labeled at 85. A1: Asymptote line sketched or clearly indicated at \(T = 21\). A1: Domain restricted correctly (starts at \(t=0\) and goes to \(t=60\)).
題目 6 · Extended-response
15.71 分
A water tank is being filled. The rate of flow of water into the tank, in litres per minute, is given by the function: \(f(t) = t^2 e^{-0.2t} + 5\), for \(0 \le t \le 20\), where \(t\) is the time in minutes.
(a) Find the initial rate of flow of water into the tank. [1] (b) Find the maximum rate of flow of water, and the time at which this maximum occurs. [3] (c) Write down a definite integral representing the total volume of water that flows into the tank during the first 10 minutes. [2] (d) Estimate this total volume using the trapezoidal rule with 5 intervals of equal width. Show your working. [5] (e) Calculate the exact value of the integral using your GDC, and find the percentage error of the trapezoidal approximation. [5]
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解題
(a) Initial rate at \(t = 0\): \(f(0) = 0^2 e^{0} + 5 = 5\text{ litres per minute}\).
(b) To find maximum, solve \(f'(t) = 0\): \(f'(t) = 2t e^{-0.2t} - 0.2 t^2 e^{-0.2t} = t e^{-0.2t}(2 - 0.2t)\). Set \(f'(t) = 0 \implies t = 10\text{ minutes}\) (since \(t > 0\)). Maximum rate \(f(10) = 10^2 e^{-2} + 5 \approx 18.5\text{ litres per minute}\).
(c) The definite integral is: \(\int_{0}^{10} (t^2 e^{-0.2t} + 5) \text{ d}t\).
(b) M1: Attempting to differentiate or find maximum using GDC. A1: Correct time of 10 minutes. A1: Correct maximum flow rate of 18.5.
(c) M1: Attempt at integration notation. A1: Correct limits and integrand.
(d) M1: Determining correct step size \(h=2\). M1: Evaluating function at the correct coordinates. M1: Correct substitution into trapezoidal formula. A1: Correct values inside parentheses. A1: Correct estimated volume of 130.80 or 131.
(e) A2: Correct exact GDC integral value of 130.83. M1: Correct percentage error formula structure. A2: Correct percentage error of approx. 0.021% (accept 0.022% depending on rounding).
題目 7 · Extended-response
15.71 分
A farmers' cooperative packages organic apples. The weight of the apples, \(W\) in grams, is normally distributed with a mean of 165g and a standard deviation of 15g.
(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen apple weighs less than 150g. [2] (b) Apples weighing between 145g and 185g are classified as "Standard". Find the percentage of apples that are classified as "Standard". [3] (c) A random sample of 12 apples is chosen. Find the probability that: (i) exactly 9 apples are classified as "Standard". [2] (ii) at least 10 apples are classified as "Standard". [3] (d) The heaviest 5% of apples are sold to premium gourmet stores. Find the minimum weight of an apple to be classified as premium. [3] (e) Calculate the interquartile range (IQR) of the apple weights. [3]
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解題
(a) \(P(W < 150)\) is found using GDC normal cumulative distribution function: \(P(W < 150) \approx 0.1587\) (or 0.159 to 3 s.f.).
(b) \(P(145 < W < 185)\) is found using normal cumulative distribution function: \(P(145 < W < 185) \approx 0.81757\). Therefore, the percentage of standard apples is 81.8% (3 s.f.).
(c) Let \(X\) be the number of Standard apples in a sample of 12. \(X \sim \text{B}(12, 0.81757)\). (i) \(P(X = 9) = \binom{12}{9} (0.81757)^9 (1 - 0.81757)^3 \approx 0.218\) (3 s.f.). (ii) \(P(X \ge 10) = 1 - P(X \le 9)\). Using GDC binomial cumulative distribution: \(P(X \le 9) \approx 0.38072\). \(P(X \ge 10) = 1 - 0.38072 \approx 0.619\) (3 s.f.).
(e) Let the premium threshold be \(w\). We want \(P(W > w) = 0.05 \implies P(W \le w) = 0.95\). Using GDC inverse normal function: \(w = \text{invNorm}(0.95, 165, 15) \approx 189.69\text{g}\) (or 190g to 3 s.f.).
(a) M1: Attempt to write correct normal probability syntax. A1: Correct probability of 0.159.
(b) M1: Set up of normal cumulative distribution with correct limits. A1: Correct probability 0.81757. A1: Expressing as a percentage 81.8%.
(c) (i) M1: Identifying binomial distribution parameter \(n=12\) and \(p\) from (b). A1: Correct probability of 0.218. (ii) M1: Recognizing need to sum terms or subtract from 1. A1: Correct binomial cumulative distribution input. A1: Correct probability of 0.619.
(d) M1: Equating probability to 0.95 (or 0.05). M1: Attempt to use Inverse Normal on GDC. A1: Correct weight of 190g.
(e) M1: Finding \(Q_1\) or \(Q_3\). M1: Calculation of \(Q_3 - Q_1\). A1: Correct IQR of 20.2g.
Paper 3
Answer both questions in the answer booklet provided. Full marks require detailed mathematical steps and GDC verification.
2 題目 · 55 分
題目 1 · Case-study-response
27 分
An ecological study investigates the population dynamics of two competing species of beetles in a controlled forest habitat. Let \(x(t)\) and \(y(t)\) represent the populations (in thousands) of Species A and Species B at time \(t\) years, respectively. The interaction is modeled by the system of autonomous differential equations: \(\frac{dx}{dt} = x(4 - x - 2y)\) and \(\frac{dy}{dt} = y(3 - y - x)\). Part (a): Find all four equilibrium points of the system. Part (b): Show that the Jacobian matrix of the system is given by \(J(x, y) = \begin{pmatrix} 4 - 2x - 2y & -2x \\ -y & 3 - x - 2y \end{pmatrix}\). Part (c): The coexistence of both species occurs at the interior equilibrium point where both \(x > 0\) and \(y > 0\). (i) Find the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix at this coexistence equilibrium point. (ii) Hence, determine the stability and nature of this equilibrium point. Part (d): An ecologist wants to simulate the populations over time starting from the initial state \(x(0) = 1.5\) and \(y(0) = 1.2\). (i) Use Euler's method with a step size of \(h = 0.1\) to find the approximated values of \(x(0.2)\) and \(y(0.2)\). Show your working clearly. (ii) Predict which species will eventually dominate (survive) and which will go extinct under these initial conditions, justifying your answer by referencing the stable equilibria and the saddle point. Part (e): To encourage coexistence, a conservationist introduces a constant harvest of Species A at a rate of 0.5 units per year. Write down the modified system of differential equations and find the new coexistence equilibrium point (where both populations are non-zero).
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解題
Part (a): Set the derivatives to zero: \(x(4 - x - 2y) = 0\) and \(y(3 - y - x) = 0\). Case 1: \(x = 0, y = 0 \implies (0,0)\). Case 2: \(x = 0, 3 - y - x = 0 \implies y = 3 \implies (0,3)\). Case 3: \(y = 0, 4 - x - 2y = 0 \implies x = 4 \implies (4,0)\). Case 4: \(4 - x - 2y = 0\) and \(3 - y - x = 0\). Subtracting the second equation from the first yields \(1 - y = 0 \implies y = 1\). Substituting back gives \(x = 2\). Thus, the fourth point is \((2,1)\). Part (b): Let \(f(x,y) = 4x - x^2 - 2xy\) and \(g(x,y) = 3y - y^2 - xy\). The partial derivatives are: \(\frac{\partial f}{\partial x} = 4 - 2x - 2y\), \(\frac{\partial f}{\partial y} = -2x\), \(\frac{\partial g}{\partial x} = -y\), \(\frac{\partial g}{\partial y} = 3 - 2y - x\). This yields \(J(x,y) = \begin{pmatrix} 4 - 2x - 2y & -2x \\ -y & 3 - x - 2y \end{pmatrix}\). Part (c)(i): At \((2,1)\), the Jacobian is \(J(2,1) = \begin{pmatrix} -2 & -4 \\ -1 & -1 \end{pmatrix}\). The characteristic equation is \((-2 - \lambda)(-1 - \lambda) - 4 = 0 \implies \lambda^2 + 3\lambda - 2 = 0\). Solving gives \(\lambda = \frac{-3 \pm \sqrt{17}}{2}\), so \(\lambda_1 \approx 0.562\) and \(\lambda_2 \approx -3.56\). Part (c)(ii): Since the eigenvalues are real and have opposite signs, the equilibrium point is a saddle point, which is unstable. Part (d)(i): Let \(x_0 = 1.5\), \(y_0 = 1.2\), \(h = 0.1\). At \(t=0\): \(f(1.5, 1.2) = 1.5(4 - 1.5 - 2.4) = 0.15\) and \(g(1.5, 1.2) = 1.2(3 - 1.2 - 1.5) = 0.36\). Next values: \(x_1 = 1.5 + 0.1(0.15) = 1.515\), \(y_1 = 1.2 + 0.1(0.36) = 1.236\). At \(t=0.1\): \(f(1.515, 1.236) = 1.515(4 - 1.515 - 2.472) = 0.019695\) and \(g(1.515, 1.236) = 1.236(3 - 1.236 - 1.515) = 0.307764\). Next values: \(x_2 = 1.515 + 0.1(0.019695) \approx 1.51697 \approx 1.52\), \(y_2 = 1.236 + 0.1(0.307764) \approx 1.26678 \approx 1.27\). Part (d)(ii): The system has stable equilibria at \((0,3)\) (Species B only) and \((4,0)\) (Species A only), separated by the stable manifold of the saddle point \((2,1)\). Since the initial state \((1.5, 1.2)\) is on the side of the boundary where \(x\) is low and \(y\) is high, the trajectory will converge to the stable node at \((0,3)\). Thus, Species B will dominate and Species A will become extinct. Part (e): The modified equations are \(\frac{dx}{dt} = x(4 - x - 2y) - 0.5\) and \(\frac{dy}{dt} = y(3 - y - x)\). For a coexistence equilibrium, setting both derivatives to zero with \(y > 0\) requires \(y = 3 - x\). Substituting this into the first equation: \(x(4 - x - 2(3 - x)) - 0.5 = 0 \implies x(x - 2) - 0.5 = 0 \implies x^2 - 2x - 0.5 = 0\). Solving for \(x > 0\): \(x = 1 + \frac{\sqrt{6}}{2} \approx 2.22\). Substituting back: \(y = 3 - (1 + \frac{\sqrt{6}}{2}) = 2 - \frac{\sqrt{6}}{2} \approx 0.775\). The new equilibrium is \((2.22, 0.775)\).
評分準則
Part (a) [4 marks]: M1 for setting derivatives to 0, A1 for each correct non-zero equilibrium point: (0,0), (0,3), (4,0), (2,1). Part (b) [3 marks]: M1 for differentiating f with respect to x and y, A1 for differentiating g with respect to x and y, A1 for showing the final Jacobian matrix. Part (c)(i) [4 marks]: M1 for substituting (2,1) into the Jacobian, M1 for setting up the characteristic equation, A1 for the correct quadratic equation in lambda, A1 for correct eigenvalues. Part (c)(ii) [2 marks]: R1 for recognizing opposite signs of real eigenvalues, A1 for concluding it is a saddle point / unstable. Part (d)(i) [5 marks]: M1 for calculating f(x0, y0) and g(x0, y0), A1 for correct x1, y1 values, M1 for calculating f(x1, y1) and g(x1, y1), A2 for correct x2, y2 values. Part (d)(ii) [3 marks]: R1 for identifying the stable nodes and the role of the saddle point boundary, A1 for predicting Species B survives, A1 for predicting Species A goes extinct. Part (e) [6 marks]: M1 for writing the modified x differential equation, M1 for writing the modified y differential equation, M1 for setting dy/dt = 0 to get y = 3 - x, M1 for substituting to get a quadratic in x, A1 for the correct value of x, A1 for the correct value of y.
題目 2 · Case-study-response
28 分
A software-as-a-service (SaaS) company models the monthly state transitions of its user base using an absorbing Markov chain. A user can be in one of five states: State 1: Free Trial (\(T\)), State 2: Basic Subscriber (\(B\)), State 3: Premium Subscriber (\(P\)), State 4: Cancelled (\(C\)) [absorbing state], State 5: Lifetime Member (\(L\)) [absorbing state]. The monthly transition probabilities are: From \(T\): \(25\%\) remain in \(T\), \(20\%\) upgrade to \(B\), \(10\%\) upgrade to \(P\), \(40\%\) cancel (\(C\)), and \(5\%\) become Lifetime Members (\(L\)). From \(B\): \(60\%\) remain in \(B\), \(15\%\) upgrade to \(P\), \(20\%\) cancel (\(C\)), and \(5\%\) become Lifetime Members (\(L\)). From \(P\): \(70\%\) remain in \(P\), \(5\%\) downgrade to \(B\), \(15\%\) cancel (\(C\)), and \(10\%\) become Lifetime Members (\(L\)). From \(C\): \(100\%\) remain in \(C\). From \(L\): \(100\%\) remain in \(L\). Part (a): Draw a transition state diagram representing the five states and their transition probabilities. Part (b): State the transition matrix \(P\) in canonical form \(P = \begin{pmatrix} Q & R \\ 0 & I \end{pmatrix}\), defining the matrices \(Q\) and \(R\). Part (c): Calculate the matrix \(I - Q\), where \(I\) is the \(3 \times 3\) identity matrix, and explain why this matrix is invertible in the context of the model. Part (d): Determine the fundamental matrix \(F = (I - Q)^{-1}\). Part (e): (i) For a customer who starts on a Free Trial, calculate the expected number of months they will remain in the Trial state and the total expected number of months they will spend in transient states before absorption. (ii) Compare the total expected time spent in transient states for a customer starting as a Basic subscriber versus a Premium subscriber. Part (f): Calculate the absorption probabilities matrix \(B = F R\). Part (g): Suppose the company acquires 5,000 new trial users in Month 0. (i) Estimate how many of these 5,000 users will eventually become Lifetime Members. (ii) If each Basic member pays $15/month and each Premium member pays $30/month (with trial users paying nothing), calculate the expected total lifetime revenue generated by these 5,000 trial users before they transition to an absorbing state. (Assume Lifetime Members make a one-off payment of $200 upon absorption, which is added to the total revenue).
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解題
Part (a): A diagram with 5 states (T, B, P, C, L) with directed edges labeled with transition probabilities. Part (b): Ordering transient states as T, B, P and absorbing states as C, L: \(Q = \begin{pmatrix} 0.25 & 0.20 & 0.10 \\ 0 & 0.60 & 0.15 \\ 0 & 0.05 & 0.70 \end{pmatrix}\) and \(R = \begin{pmatrix} 0.40 & 0.05 \\ 0.20 & 0.05 \\ 0.15 & 0.10 \end{pmatrix}\). Part (c): \(I - Q = \begin{pmatrix} 0.75 & -0.20 & -0.10 \\ 0 & 0.40 & -0.15 \\ 0 & -0.05 & 0.30 \end{pmatrix}\). Invertibility is guaranteed because the probability of remaining in transient states approaches zero as time approaches infinity (since every state has a path to absorption). Part (d): Using GDC to invert \(I-Q\): \(F = \begin{pmatrix} 4/3 & 104/135 & 112/135 \\ 0 & 8/3 & 4/3 \\ 0 & 4/9 & 32/9 \end{pmatrix} \approx \begin{pmatrix} 1.333 & 0.770 & 0.830 \\ 0 & 2.667 & 1.333 \\ 0 & 0.444 & 3.556 \end{pmatrix}\). Part (e)(i): Expected months in Trial: \(F_{11} = 4/3 \approx 1.33\) months. Total expected months: \(F_{11} + F_{12} + F_{13} = 4/3 + 104/135 + 112/135 = 396/135 \approx 2.93\) months. Part (e)(ii): For Basic: \(F_{21} + F_{22} + F_{23} = 0 + 8/3 + 4/3 = 4\) months. For Premium: \(F_{31} + F_{32} + F_{33} = 0 + 4/9 + 32/9 = 4\) months. Both groups have the same expected lifetime in transient states (4 months). Part (f): \(B = F R = \begin{pmatrix} 4/3 & 104/135 & 112/135 \\ 0 & 8/3 & 4/3 \\ 0 & 4/9 & 32/9 \end{pmatrix} \begin{pmatrix} 0.40 & 0.05 \\ 0.20 & 0.05 \\ 0.15 & 0.10 \end{pmatrix} = \begin{pmatrix} 548/675 & 127/675 \\ 11/15 & 4/15 \\ 28/45 & 17/45 \end{pmatrix} \approx \begin{pmatrix} 0.812 & 0.188 \\ 0.733 & 0.267 \\ 0.622 & 0.378 \end{pmatrix}\). Part (g)(i): Expected lifetime members: \(5000 \times B_{12} = 5000 \times (127/675) \approx 941\) users. Part (g)(ii): Monthly revenue from one Trial user: \(0 \times F_{11} + 15 \times F_{12} + 30 \times F_{13} = 15(104/135) + 30(112/135) = 328/9 \approx \$36.44\). One-off lifetime membership payment: \(200 \times B_{12} = 200(127/675) \approx \$37.63\). Total expected revenue per trial user: \(328/9 + 25400/675 = 50000/675 = 2000/27 \approx \$74.07\). For 5,000 users, total revenue: \(5000 \times (2000/27) \approx \$370,370\).
評分準則
Part (a) [3 marks]: M1 for drawing a diagram with five states, A2 for labeling transitions correctly. Part (b) [4 marks]: A2 for the correct Q matrix, A2 for the correct R matrix. Part (c) [3 marks]: A2 for calculating I - Q, R1 for the explanation of invertibility based on eventual absorption. Part (d) [5 marks]: M1 for setup of the inverse matrix, A4 for the correct entries (or fractions). Part (e)(i) [4 marks]: A1 for expected trial months, M1 for setting up the sum of row 1, A2 for the correct sum of transient time. Part (e)(ii) [2 marks]: A1 for Basic expected time of 4 months, A1 for Premium expected time of 4 months. Part (f) [4 marks]: M1 for multiplying F and R, A3 for the correct matrix values. Part (g)(i) [2 marks]: M1 for multiplying 5000 by B12, A1 for 941. Part (g)(ii) [3 marks]: M1 for setting up subscription revenue calculation, M1 for adding lifetime membership fee, A1 for the correct total of $370,370 (accept $370,300 to $370,400 due to rounding).
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