CS1 – Actuarial Statistics

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IFoA (Institute and Faculty of Actuaries) の学習者向けの無料CS1 – Actuarial Statistics学習ノート。各章のリンクから、要点・例題・練習問題への導線にアクセスできます。

Data analysis

  • Aims, stages and tools of a data analysis

  • Data sources, large data sets and reproducible research

  • Summary statistics and exploratory data visualisation

  • Correlation: Pearson, Spearman and Kendall

  • Principal component analysis

Random variables and distributions

  • Discrete distributions and their properties

  • Continuous distributions and their properties

  • The Poisson process and simulation by inverse transform

  • Joint distributions, independence and covariance

  • Conditional expectation and conditional variance

  • Moment and cumulant generating functions

  • The central limit theorem

  • Random sampling and sampling distributions

Statistical inference

  • Method of moments and maximum likelihood estimation

  • Properties of estimators: bias, mean square error, efficiency, consistency

  • Asymptotic distribution of MLEs and the bootstrap

  • Confidence intervals for normal, binomial and Poisson parameters

  • Two-sample and paired intervals; prediction intervals

  • Hypothesis testing concepts, errors and power

  • One-sample, two-sample, paired and permutation tests

  • Chi-square goodness of fit and contingency tables

Regression theory and applications

  • Simple linear regression and least squares estimation

  • Multiple linear regression and choice of explanatory variables

  • Inference on the slope, goodness of fit and prediction intervals

  • Residual analysis and model validation

  • The exponential family, variance function and scale parameter

  • Link functions and the linear predictor: variables, factors, interactions

  • Deviance, parameter estimation and model selection in GLMs

  • GLM residuals and tests of model acceptability

Bayesian statistics and credibility theory

  • Bayes' theorem and conditional probability

  • Prior, posterior and conjugate prior distributions

  • Deriving posterior distributions in simple cases

  • Loss functions and Bayesian estimators

  • Credible intervals

  • The credibility premium formula and the credibility factor

  • Bayesian credibility theory

  • Empirical Bayes credibility theory and its assumptions

Bayesian statistics

  • Understanding the differences between the Bayes and Empirical Bayes approaches and the assumptions underlying each of them

Statistical software skills (Paper B)

  • Simulating random variables and samples in R

  • Probabilities, quantiles and summary statistics in R

  • Exploratory plots and correlation output in R

  • Fitting and interpreting linear regression output

  • Fitting and interpreting generalised linear model output

  • Tests and confidence intervals using software output

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